Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, also cut his 2008 earnings forecasts for the banks, as well as that of Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which he still rates "neutral."
The downgrades reflect expectations that brokerage stocks "will do poorly this summer for three reasons... weak earnings, clouded secular outlooks, and the seasonal weakness that seems to impact these issues," the analyst wrote.
Bove was one of the first banking analysts to recommend selling financial stocks as credit market problems began nearly a year ago. On July 18, Bove recommended selling shares of Bear Stearns Cos Inc (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Goldman, Lehman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley, saying the financial system was growing at a pace that could not be sustained by economic growth.”
In my post
Slowly Building Shorts I argued that Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), and Morgan Stanley (MS) were at key technical resistance levels and that it was time to get short. I also presented some fundamental arguments for these short positions as well… that all revolved around
EXPANDING Level 3 assets. A list of firms and their Level 3 assets can be found in
Bulltrap: ABCP, and Level 3 Bombs.
The trade has been quite profitable. I intend to really lighten up these names and may even exit them entirely. The plan is to re-enter them
SHORT on the next short covering bounce.
I also played Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) from the short side. This was far less lucrative as neither have yet really broken down. They will crack… eventually.
In the same post I first argued presented the case for a Bear Wedge in the S&P 500. I was a little early in calling
Cracks In The Bear Wedge. Yesterday prices finally broke
DOWN and
OUT. But not before giving me some heat and going all the way to 1440. (Damn close to stopping me out across the board.)
In
Gravestone Doji And Cool Correlations: Volatility, Yen I use Volatility (VIX) and the Yen as both leading and confirming indicators. The first Gravestone Doji was followed by a second before the final break occurred. Since then, both the VIX and the Yen are behaving the way they should. This confirms that this down leg in equities is sustainable.
