Since the beginning of this week, the Euro has fallen more than 500 pips
against the US dollar, its biggest weekly gain in 3 years. The prospect of a rate
hike by the Federal Reserve in August and/or September as well as key event
risks over the next 48 hours has currency traders rushing out of Euros.
This morning, headline US consumer prices grew by a more than expected 0.6
percent, driving the annualized pace of growth to 4.2 percent. Surprisingly
enough, the rise in core prices has been relatively tepid which indicates that
higher food and energy prices continue to be the primary contributors to
inflationary pressures. Either way, the numbers validate the Fed’s need to be
hawkish, has contributed to the dollar’s rally today and support the case for a
rate hike before the end of the year.
Two other key event risks are also hanging over the Euro. According to the
latest report on the Irish Lisbon Treaty, an overwhelmingly large number votes
have been in favor of rejecting the Lisbon Referendum. This No vote, though
unsurprising is adding pressure on the single currency even though in the grand
scheme of things, it in no way threatens the viability of the Euro.
This weekend we have the G8 meeting of Finance Ministers. There have been
back and forth reports by “G8 officials” on whether the group will talk tough on
currencies, keeping alive the threat of intervention. If a comment is made, this
time around, it won’t be about the Asian currencies and instead will be about
the need to support the US dollar.