Have we just witnessed a "top and reversal" for the price of oil and the hottest oil-related companies? The last week we have seen oil surge up to $140-a-barrel only to see it meet massive resistance and quickly plunge.

As I write this oil's price is down $4.55 at under $132. It must be very tempting for the analysts and crystal ball readers to wonder if this phase of the hot energy bull market is coming to a temporal close. One of the old-timers in this business recently tried to make heads-or-tails of all this bouncing around.

Dow Theory Letters' veteran Richard Russell is clearly tempted. On Tuesday, he wrote: "Yesterday I noted that crude hit a record intraday high -- but closed down. I thought this could be a key reversal to the downside. The daily chart below shows oil rallying to a new record high. But [a bunch of really esoteric technical indicators] did not confirm ...

"So the technical situation for crude is negative, and I'll be watching to see whether July crude breaks down. If July crude closes below 130, I think crude stands a good chance of having topped out. By the way, almost all the oil stocks have failed to follow crude to new highs."

In fact, of course, oil rebounded Wednesday. Not unusually, Russell didn't comment. But he did quote oil investor T. Boone Pickens endorsing the "peak oil" thesis -- that world production has reached its physical limit. So (not for the first time) Russell has wiggle room.

Peter Brimelow at www.MarketWatch.com had some more insights in what's hot, what's not, and where the next fork in the road may lead to rich rewards and surprising results.

"I decided to check with a top-performing commodities letter that has weathered recent wiggles well: Vital Resource Investor.

Currently, Vital Resource Investor is the sixth-best performer over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, up 28.3% vs. negative 6.31% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. And it's the third-best performer for the year to date, achieving a 13.7% gain, vs. negative 3.0% for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000. Over the past 10 years, the letter has achieved a 15.89% annualized gain, vs. 4.83% annualized for the total-return DJW.

Generally, Vital Resource Investor is still bullish on commodities. It wrote recently: "The good news: This is a great buying opportunity, particularly for the best of the biggest companies in this industry."

In other words, if you're light on the likes of Anglo American Plc. (Nasdaq:AAUK), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX), Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP), Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE:RIO) or Xstrata Plc. (OTC:XSRAF.PK), now is most likely the time to start building your positions.

Brimelow goes on to suggest, "Funny thing, though: There's no oil stocks in Vital Resource Investor's model portfolio. The letter doesn't diss oil, exactly. It writes: "The crux of this issue has to do with the emerging markets. Do you believe China and India are headed back down simply because the dollar strengthens? Their population growth alone places a floor on oil prices during corrections.

"Consider this: In America, we have about 900 cars for every 1,000 people. By comparison, only 45 people per 1,000 own cars in China. Think about what would happen to oil demand if ownership in China merely doubled to 90 vehicles per 1,000. And China has recently surpassed the U.S. as the biggest world consumer of copper, accounting for 27% of the world's total demand.

"But oil demand could certainly drop because of sticker shock and a slowing economy ..." This caution may just be short-term, however. Vital Resource Investor is bullish on uranium." We here at ChecktheMarkets.com like uranium and believe it is on sale in a big way if you're a long-term investor.

Our three favorite uranium picks are Denison Mines (AMEX:DNN), Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) and a very promising Canadian junior company called Pitchstone Exploration (OTC:PEXPF.PK).

This is a great time to be ahead of the herd and to be sifting for diamonds where no one else is too excited. This would also apply to silver, which has not been getting much respect the last few months and could, and I mean it seems likely, triple over the next few years. Silver ETF (AMEX:SLV) is a wonderful way to enter that world of probability. A caveat on silver, it could trade in a tight range over the next couple of months, so buy on dips if you can.