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Bookkeeping: Adding Tech Exposure with Ciena
By: TraderMark   Friday, June 20, 2008 1:32 PM
Symbols: AAPL, AKAM, ALU, BRCM, CIEN, DLB, GOOG, JNPR, MRVL, NT, QCOM, RES, RIMM
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The current market thesis, which I also believe will be proven wrong in time, is technology is a safe place to hide since it (a) does not have exposure to petrol in large part and (b) is more tied to corporate instead of consumer. So therefore its magic. That was the same thesis advanced last December (2007) when technology went on a tear, and then summarily was destroyed January - March 2008. But Wall Street is great at recycling old trash. I find the thesis stupid but the relative outperformance of the NASDAQ is not to be argued with. So when 10,000 hedge fund computers say "this is the thesis" I am not going to argue with them.

I find very little growth in technology, and the irony is the main huge growers are indeed more tied to consumer (Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and to a degree Research in Motion (RIMM)) than corporate. But somehow Wall Street believes a slowing consumer will not lead to a slowing corporate. That's Wall Street logic 101. Anyhow, I digress - let me just stay I disagree with the logic but understand why it is happening... so if we do indeed get any rotation out of energy/commodities we need to have something working in our barbell approach.

I asked readers in early June what is your best tech idea (Jun 4: Readers - What is your 4th Best Technology Stock and Why?) since we could see the relative outperformance of technology and I wanted some more exposure over and above the names we already own. First, thanks for all your suggestions - I looked over the vast majority and most were names I already knew (or already suggested in the past) I was hoping for some magical bullet stock I had never heard of.

I was going to put a buy in yesterday in Broadcom (BRCM) a former holding in the fund (Oct 23: Broadcom Implodes After Hours), but the stock ripped 7% higher yesterday... I was considering Akamai Technologies (AKAM) also a former fund holding (Oct 5: News Flow Just Never Gets Better at Akamai Technologies), but still am worried about the competition level. I was looking at Marvel Technology (MRVL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) - both are nice charts so they are promising and still potential names to add.



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