Whenever a sector has big winners, cheap, poor and greedy people are
gonna look to get in on the action by buying and hyping
bottom-of-the-barrel-companies that trade for less than $5/share. It’s
science.
Take alternative energy—the rise of superstars like First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
and Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ENER) have paved the way for runups in
industry laughingstocks Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST) and SatCon
Technology Corporation (SATC), Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies (QTWW) and
Hydrogenics Corporation (USA) (HYGS). Worse yet, no matter the rising tide
theory, the sector’s true embarrassments, Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) and Beacon
Power Corp. (BCON), still can’t even rise much! (laughing at them truly does
make you feel better about yourself, try it!)
This kind of gutter trash is my specialty—I’m not even gonna get into the
fundamentals—or lack thereof—cuz no matter how bright a future these companies
say they have, fancy accounting they use to prop up their numbers, etc. you
really gotta think of them as junkies shooting up heroin (or alternative energy)
in an alleyway. Message board posters, longs, naïve fund managers (themselves
drug addicts…seriously, you have no idea how bad it is, pathetic that nobody
talks about it openly) and ANALysts
propping up their near-carcasses, feeding them one good meal and dressing them
up to go to a big charity event to make themselves look good, only to ditch them
later after they’ve gotten credit for doing a good deed (profiting form hyped up
prices).
Overly cynical? Nope. 900 out 1,000 of these manure-esque companies will fail
within a few years, 950 will fall back waaay below these spiked up prices and
990 of them will trade lower than what they’re at right now. These are just
estimates based on industry fact and my decade-long experience and if you think
you have the talent to profit from that 0.10% of successful companies, go right
ahead.





