In short, with today's high Oil prices and report after report from the big
automakers cutting production, the answer's a resounding No! There's simply
nothing compelling out there valuation wise in the Automotive space.
Ford
(F) Virtually slashing it's
popular Truck line in half with delays and production cuts, and the only car
worth talking about, besides police departments contracts, is the Mustang which
now has been stagnant for almost half a decade.
General Motors (GM) $40Billion in the hole
and counting... Not to mention probably the ugliest set of cars in America next
to Chevrolet. Truly incredibly uninspiring automotive design.
Toyota (TM) Actually the only
compelling value out there with a P/E of 9. However, whispers of US sales
expectation management are seeping through the proverbial cracks, which will put
some serious pressure on upcoming earnings reports. The company has the clout of
being the "leader" in the Hybrid segment going for it but could the Prius
possibly look any worse, and if the respectable Jeremy Clarkson of Top Gear is
to be believed, in a race the Prius provided worse fuel economy than a BMW M3!
(*Obviously the car was not run under normal conditions*)
Toyota at
levels below $100 is one to put on the watch list, however times will continue
to be rocky in the Automotive segment as a whole until Oil speculation subsides
and consumers instill in themselves a renewed confidence to go driving
again.
Of the companies traded in the US, the only one continuing to do
reasonably well is Honda (HMC). Is it a big secret that
it is up 4% Year to Date while others are off significantly? F (-20%) GM (-40%),
DAI (-30%), TM
(-10%).
Honda's secret sauce? Fuel efficient well engineered cars, that
have very good engines, are impressively reliable and most importantly, don't
make you loathe getting into them every single morning. It isn't hard to
understand that successes like Accord and Civic, year after year show up on best
lists and best seller lists. The Acura luxury line continues to produce winners
as well, but a watchful eye on the headlines is a necessity in this
sector.
With Toyota starting to whisper statements that US sales targets
will be "tough to meet" it doesn't require multiple graduate degrees to surmise
Honda may be in for some dry spells to come. While at this stage Honda is a Hold
in this book, closer to $30/share is an attractive entry point for an innovative
car company, that yet sees almost none of the corporate stumbling blocks faced
by its US peers and has a big enough worldwide presence to funnel out good small
cars all over Europe and Japan.
