Can a Near Term Top in Oil Be Far Away?

By: TraderMark Thursday, June 26, 2008 2:20 PM

Sectors: Basic Materials , Finance

Symbols: BX, PZE

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One thing we always like to look for are something that signals at least a medium term top in a sector - i.e. when everyone has thrown in the towel and is bullish, we look for a reversal. I wrote about this in April when potash spiked to $1000 on spot market and Intrepid Potash (IPI) IPO'd - immediately (within days) the fertilizers flat lined for a good 6 weeks. (Apr 23: Potash Hits $1000 on Spot Market) Some other fun ones I highlighted in the blog with some quite good timing

Sometimes, in retrospect, we can look back at a moment in time that seems either outrageous or telling, and see a warning signal is flashing in the middle of a mania. I have pointed this out in previous entries ranging from

The Macau gambling stocks (Steve Wynn cashout), on the heels of private equity 'cash out' via Blackstone IPO (BX), on the heels of Sam Zell cashing out at the top in commercial real estate during the private equity feeding frenzy (A Top in Casino Names?)
The Chinese small cap bubble frenzy earlier in October (This Day in Bubbles Series)
The dry bulk shipping frenzy (A Chorus for Dry Bulk Shippers - Enough Already?) and (A Near Term Drop in Dry Bulk Shippers?)
And our most recent frenzy, that of the solar companies (Closing LDK Solar on the Mania that is Solar) and (Suntech Power Up 8%.... on a Downgrade)

So that is 5 for 5.