Oil and jet-fuel prices are in the stratosphere, many of the world’s top
airlines have ordered severe cutbacks, and passenger traffic is falling, so why
is Dubai funneling 82 billion of its petrodollars into an aerospace project that
includes plans for the world’s largest airport?
The answer is simple. Dubai isn’t concerned about the near-term turbulence
that has sent global investors diving for cover and induced airline-industry
executives to hanger portions of their jetliner fleets. The leaders of that
Middle Eastern country have taken a long and studious look at the powerful global trends that are destined to play out over the
next 20, 30 or even 40 years, and have crafted their plans accordingly.
In a broad sense, that focus on the long term is a lesson U.S. investors
would be very smart to follow.
So, let’s take a close look at how well Dubai’s financerati have
thought this through. We’ll look at some moves you can make to profit alongside
Dubai. And I’ll even let you in on a surprise conclusion about this project that
we’ve reached here at Money Morning - that I can
virtually guarantee you’ve yet to hear anywhere else. Perhaps you’ll be the
enviable "person in the corner surrounded by a crowd" at the next dinner party
you attend.
The Lowdown on a High-Flying Nation
Dubai is situated on the Southwest Coast of the Persian Gulf and is one of
six jurisdictions that make up the United Arab Emirates, a member of the Oil
Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Although Dubai built its economy on a foundation of petro-gusher dollars,
"black gold" has become an increasingly smaller component of its market muscle.
Right now, in fact, oil and natural gas account for only about 6% of Dubai’s
estimated $40 billion economy, and some experts predict that its crude-oil
reserves will be exhausted in about 20 years.
As ominous as that sounds, Dubai leaders apparently don’t see that as a
catastrophe in the making. Today, the biggest pieces of this emirate’s economic
might are based on foreign trade (16%), seaport or airport-located duty-free
trade zones known as entrepot (15%), and financial services (11%), although
real-estate development, construction and tourism are closing the gap
quickly.
"Dubai had less oil than [neighbor] Abu Dhabi [and needs] to create jobs for
the population," Richard Aboulafia, an industry consultant with the
aerospace-management company, The Teal Group, told MarketWatch.com.
"This is them saying: ‘Let’s convert our oil money into something
tangible’."
Said Keith Fitz-Gerald, investment director for Money
Morning: "What we’re seeing here is the emergence of an entirely
new economy where the world least expected it. This is absolutely progressing
much faster than anyone ever expected. And, to borrow an expression from an old
movie, ‘There may be a new sheriff in town’," as global sovereign wealth funds
potentially supplant Wall Street as the primary financing vehicle for the world
markets.
Consulting giant McKinsey & Co. estimates that Persian Gulf economies
will have to create more than 4 million jobs for its own citizens in the next 10
years. The aerospace sector could account for as many as 350,000 new positions
by 2015, McKinsey says.
In very recent years, the country has gained a
reputation for doing things in a big way, sometimes even past the point of
excess. Dubai is already home to the world’s largest mall, biggest indoor
ski resort and tallest building - as well as the world’s only "seven-star"
hotel, the boat-sail shaped Burj Al Arab, a luxury hotel built on an
artificially created offshore island, and a building whose reach of 1,053 feet
makes it the tallest structure being used as a hotel anywhere on earth. And
don’t forget "The World" itself, a much-ballyhooed manmade archipelago of 300
islands (situated in the shape of a world map). Most of the individual patches
of land were to fetch $15 million to $50 million - although one of the islands
was reportedly priced at $250 million.
Currently, an estimated $300 billion in construction-and-development projects
are under way in Dubai.
Dubai Takes to the Skies
Dubai’s aviation vision reaches back several decades. But it’s only really
reached a critical mass in the past couple of years. Dubai-based Emirates
Airlines is currently the world’s fastest-growing carrier. And that
fast-climbing rate isn’t because Emirates is growing from a small base.
Indeed, with 180 jetliners, worth an estimated $58 billion, on order,
Emirates has become such an industry heavyweight - especially when other top
carriers are cutting their fleets - that U.S.-based Boeing Co.