You know you’re old when you’re posting an image from “The Twilight Zone”. But
this is from a famous episode featured William Shatner where he tried to tell
the flight crew that there was something horrible on the wing and they didn’t
believe him.
This is to suggest there’s something bad about to happen.
Maybe it’s GM or not. But, when oil prices rose in 1990 we got a signal to buy
in late June as prices broke out inexplicably. Supply was good and oil had been
locked in a trading range. Most traders were reluctant to take a fresh new long
trade from a fundamental view. But, the market was telling us--“something’s up,
and it ain’t good”. Sure enough a little over a month later Iraq invaded Kuwait
and the news others already knew became obvious.
I’m sensing
“something’s up” now with energy and it isn’t just supply/demand data.
Given the current volume it’s hard to imagine anyone’s taken off for the
Hamptons just yet. But, as you can imagine volume remains heavy [too heavy for
Yahoo/Finance to calculate] while breadth is decidedly negative.
Every bear market has its causes and ultimate
signature--this one won’t be any different. How long will this condition last? I
haven’t the foggiest.
Bulls shouldn’t be too quick to jump on “values”
and bears shouldn’t be doing any victory laps until they close their shorts and
tally-up their gains if any.
Are markets oversold? Sure. And they can
stay oversold for longer than most can imagine. Nevertheless you should expect
vigorous countertrend rallies at any time.
Dependent on market
conditions tomorrow I may only post Part VI of my ongoing “Dawn of a New Era”
essay begun in 2003.
Have a pleasant evening and holiday in any event.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short
positions in:
SPY, SDS,
MDY, MZZ,
IWM, TWM,
QQQQ, QID,
XLY, SCC,
XLI, SIJ,
IYR, SRS,
XLB, SMN,
DBA, DAG,
EFA, EFU,
EEM EEV,
IEV,
EWJ, EWV,
EWA,
EWY,
EWZ,
EWW,
ILF,
FXI and FXP.
