Brazilian stocks as measured by the country’s Bovespa benchmark stock index has fallen 20% from its May 20 record, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to give up on Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil still has plenty to offer, and with stock valuations low, it’s a good time to go bargain hunting.
In fact, a big reason why Brazilian stocks have dropped is because the country’s central bank has been forced to raise rates to curb inflation. Policymakers have raised the benchmark rate twice since April, to 12.25%. Of course, inflation isn’t a problem unique to Brazil.
Inflation in India has been at alarmingly high levels since the first week of June, when it jumped from 8.75% to 11%. And many analysts expect government data released today (Friday) will show wholesale prices soared to a 13-year high of 11.75% in the week ended June 28.
China’s consumer price index (CPI), the nation’s primary gauge of inflation, increased 7.7% in May, after hitting a near 12-year high of 8.7% in February, and is expected to rise 7.2% year-over-year in 2008.
The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate a quarter point last week, after inflation hit a 16-year high of 4% last month, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has also struck a more hawkish tone with regards to tightening monetary policy.
Brazil, said yesterday that its benchmark IPCA inflation rate rose 6.06% in the past 12 months, higher than the central bank’s 4.5% target, but still below the spiraling rates of China and India, and only marginally higher than inflation in the European Union. Today’s inflation rate is also a marked improvement over the 12% Brazil clocked in 2002.
Also, unlike the United States and Europe, which are both grappling with sluggish growth as well as soaring inflation, the Brazilian economy is expected to expand by a bullish 4.8% this year. And there are two big reasons why.
Brazil’s Booming Consumer Class
By 2030 an additional 2 billion people will have joined the global middle class, according to research by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). That’s a third of the world’s population and enough to cause a "shift in spending power towards middle-income economies." With its rapid growth and abundance of resources, Brazil figures to be a major focal point of that shift.
In the past two years, more than 23 million people have leapt from Brazil’s lower income classes into "Class C," which is defined by households with incomes between $450 and $745 a month. Class C, Brazil’s middle class, now makes up about 46% of the country’s population, according to
Reuters.
The percentage of the population that makes up the lowest two classes, "Class D" and "Class E," dropped from 51% to 39% from 2005 to 2007.
This shift has caused a boom in consumerism throughout the region. Household consumption rose 6.6% in the first quarter of this year, according to the nation’s statistics agency.
While the majority of incomes have traditionally been spent on staples such as food, an increase in household wealth has resulted in a surge in spending on luxury goods.
