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Wrap Up of a Very Interesting Day that was July 15' 2008
By: Biiwii.com   Wednesday, July 16, 2008 10:35 AM
Sectors: Finance , Index
Symbols: CPC
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Note: Blogger has eaten all the charts that were to be used in today's post. They were daily charts of gold, gold-oil ratio (GOR), HUI & QQQQ. I will try to insert them again later if/when the glitch gets fixed.

Yesterday was exciting, wasn't it? We had a classic over bought reversal on the gold stocks, fear and wild emotional swings in the broad markets as the US Financial system melts down and gold outperforming oil by a wide margin (and silver by a smaller one). Here are some relevant charts. This is one of those times you want to get it right and not be caught napping. Only you know whether you are an investor or a trader (I am a combination and hence took some profits to raise cash but am still long the gold stocks) and only you know at what point you are satisfied with your profits - assuming, like me, you are even a gold bull. If you are an equity bull, well... read on.

First up is gold. As you can see yeller started getting a bit impulsive after the successful retest of the inverted H&S neckline just as the herd's fear began whipping into a frenzy. It remains in an uptrend channel and I expect the noted target to be hit near term although the ride could get bumpy from here. Remember the possible scenario I mentioned for HUI? The same could be said for the metal. It would serve as a shakeout but prove very bullish ultimately if we double top and decline to the lower line of a would-be ascending triangle or maybe even a handle to a cup.

Next up is the Gold-Oil Ratio (GOR). This baby lurched higher in an impulsive manner yesterday, again due to the massive rush for liquidity (and away from the casino) in progress. It would be favorable for gold to turn the noted resistance line into support vs. oil. The ongoing bullish divergence we have been watching is in the process of being hammered into a genuine bottom for GOR.

One of the more notable events of the day was Huey's reversal in sympathy to the large oil decline. This is of course an illogical response on the part of traders since rising oil does not create inflation and in fact it does create a drag on miners' bottom lines. But a consistent theme here has been caution about what will happen when these automatons begin selling. They apparently did yesterday and I would not be surprised to see HUI tag the lower line of the new uptrend channel.

Okay, here is the part that the battered equity bulls (both of you) have been waiting for. Yesterday I had to slap my hand away from pushing the 'buy the cubes!' button. I held off because the VIX has not yet hit our target in the 36-38 range and a look at the $CPC equity put/call ratio shows the 20 day ema typically has higher to climb before a solid - if temporary - bottom in stocks can be had. Still, volumes were high and the markets tried to reverse before fading into the close. On this chart from May it was noted that the $NDX - for which QQQQ is a proxy - had filled a gap in a bearish rising wedge and would now likely decline to fill some downside gaps. Well, mission accomplished or nearly so. With the relative strength of these large cap techs and their overall healthy financial condition, this is the market I wish to play on any counter-bear market rally that may erupt. As I mentioned, I held off buying yesterday as I am hopeful of a final plunge in all major markets. But I am getting itchy to buy. After all, the public is excessively bearish and Suze Ormand and her cartoon-like cautiousness has replaced those snickering Fast Money players on CNBC's prime time slot. I am getting bullish for a trade in the big techs.


 

 
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