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Stock Market Summary for July 21st, 2008
Sectors: Aerospace
, Basic Materials
, Computer and Technology
, Construction
, Oils/Energy
, Finance
, Industrial Products
, Medical
Symbols: AAPL, AKS, AXP, BAC, BHI, BIIB, CAT, DD, ERIC, ETFC, HAL, JBLU, JEC, LMT, NSC, SNDK, STM, TXN, UAUA, UPS, WB, WM, XL, YHOO
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American Express (AXP) says they are scaling back efforts to get new customers in the US, but plan expansion in international and business cards. The CFO expects the US economy to weaken throughout the year. Why are they expanding into a weakening international market? And business….? Have they even been watching the news, let alone the declining global economy? Maybe they were just trying to sound optimistic, I don’t know.
Wachovia (WB) announced they will stop offering home loans through brokers this week. (Thank you, Mr. Brashear, for reminding me about this!) Wachovia reports tomorrow, and has estimated a $2.6-$2.8B loss. Bank of America (BAC) got a few people all excited this morning by beating estimates. These estimates had been lowered so much, that any indication of breathing by a BAC employee would have caused a "beat." After the debacle of the Well’s Fargo earnings report, where they extended the time period before reporting a loan delinquent, who can believe that these earnings reports reflect the true financial health of a company? Trust is missing. Confidence in our financial system, and in our government’s ability to properly handle the crisis, has fled the scene. The Fed, Treasury and SEC have done an excellent job….at destroying confidence in the market. And what about those financial stocks that were supposed to be propped up by that emergency "no naked shorting" rule? Looks like one can short with their clothes on, too, and it doesn’t stop a "long" from abandoning their position. Is anyone really surprised the indices are having a difficult time staying in positive territory, with all of the shenanigans and "slapped together" fixes?
The true nature of the credit crisis is beginning to show in the earnings reports of other sectors. AAPL, SNDK, and TXN shares were whomped in after hours trading, right along with AXP. All of these companies guided lower for next quarter. AAPL fell almost 9.5% today. Is it beginning to sink in yet? We are in trouble here. No amount of cheerleading or positive thinking is going to fix this. In spite of some people’s beliefs, one cannot talk themselves into a recession or into prosperity. One cannot talk themselves into poverty or into wealth. One cannot say "we have a strong dollar policy" and then take actions that ensure that dollar’s demise. Reality trumps one’s wishful thinking. Speaking of a strong dollar: if not for a weak US dollar, IBM’s earnings report would have looked a lot worse than those pretty headline numbers we received. So do we really want a strong dollar? One way or another, somebody is going to suffer.
Tomorrow brings more earnings reports. Before the open, watch for: AKS, BHI, BIIB,CAT,DD,HAL,JEC,JBLU,ERIC,LMT,UAUA,UPS,WB. After the close, watch for: ETFC, NSC,STM,WM,XL,YHOO. That includes just about every sector, not all, but a lot! Something for everyone, at the least.
Around 8:00am ET Treasury Secretary Paulson will be in New York, speaking on the US economy. Shortly after that, the Federal Reserve’s Plosser will be doing the same thing, in Pennsylvania.
At 10:00am ET July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (last -12), and the May House Price Index m/m (last -0.8%).
At 1:00pm ET Treasury 20-year TIPS auction
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