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The Wagner Daily - July 25, 2008
Sectors: ETFs
, Finance
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After opening near unchanged levels yesterday, the major indices quickly
entered into a steady downtrend that persisted throughout the entire session. By
the closing bell, each of the main stock market indexes had fallen at least 2%,
giving back all their gains of the past two days. Still, considering how far
stocks bounced off their mid-July low, in such a short period of time,
yesterday's correction was not really that terrible. The Nasdaq Composite shed
2.0%, the S&P 500 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.4%. The
small-cap Russell 2000 fell 2.3%, as the S&P Midcap 400 tumbled 3.0%. All
the broad-based indexes settled at their lowest levels of the day.
Lessening the blow of yesterday's sell-off was the fact that volume ticked
lower across the board. Total volume in both the NYSE and Nasdaq receded 7%
below the previous day's levels. This tells us that the bearish price action was
more the result of an overall lack of buying interest, rather than heavy selling
into strength on the part of institutions. As such, the price to volume
relationship of the broad market remains positive. Following up three days of
higher volume gains ("accumulation") with a session of lighter volume losses is
bullish, regardless of yesterday's substantial losses. If, however, the market
continues to retrace while turnover picks up, it will serve as a warning signal
that the rally attempt off the mid-July lows may be in danger. Although stocks
dropped on lighter volume, firmly negative market internals were a concern. In
the NYSE, declining volume exceeded advancing volume by a margin of nearly 7 to
1. The Nasdaq adv/dec ratio was negative by more than 4 to 1.
After scanning the charts of hundred ETFs, looking for low-risk buying
opportunities after the pullback, we frankly were not impressed. Most industry
sectors have bounced off their lows, but have resistance of their 20 and 50-day
moving averages overhead. Furthermore, many remain well within the trend
channels of their primary downtrends that have been in place for months. Ultra
short-term traders may benefit from trading the momentum of counter-trend
bounces, but yesterday's sharp pullback proves the necessity of being physically
and mentally able to get out quickly when pressure of the dominant downtrends
resumes.
As for short selling, we are seeing a lot of relative weakness in the Basic
Materials sector, which has completely ignored the rally within the U.S. markets
over the past two weeks. As such, it's not surprising that the sector fell
sharply lower yesterday, alongside of the broad market. When a sector is so weak
that it can't even rally with the broad market, it is generally one of the first
sectors to fall apart as soon as the broad market corrects. If you're looking to
take advantage of a bearish play right now, consider selling short the Basic
Materials sector.
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