When I wrote Part I yesterday and sent it off for posting, I didn't realize
that the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column was going to help
advance my proposition.
In this article titled, "Miner's Run Seems Over" (which is another way of
saying "Mining Stocks are Dead") someone named Arindam Nag was adding to the
pessimism and negativism about mining stocks (forgive the pun, but he or she was
"Nagging").
The WSJ article had this kind of sour-grapes flavor to it: "Put away that
shovel. Mining stocks are getting hurt as investors anticipate a profit squeeze
between rising investment costs and falling commodities prices.
The DJ Basic Resources STOXX index, which includes some of the world's main
metals companies, including BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP), is
down 26% in the past three months.
That has left commodities companies trading at historically low multiples of
expected earnings, suggesting either the shares are undervalued or investors
believe miners' run of profit growth can't continue.
The latter looks most likely. Even if commodities prices don't fall further,
rising costs could be enough to squeeze..." ad nauseum.
So, as if the Nag knew what investors were thinking and doing (many of them
are on vacation I'm told), he/she announces to the world that "they", the
investors, believe it's curtains for the mining companies "run of profit
growth."
They weren't the only one throwing cold water on the miners. Our friend Dan
Ferris who pens the illuminating newsletter Extreme Value at Stansberry Research
was opining about the shortage of both silver and gold
coins, when he decided to weigh in on the Mining Stocks and their
impending "funeral."
Dan writes, "We received this note yesterday from our own Matt Badiali:
"Just got off the phone with Van Simmons (an executive with David Hall Rare
Coins). He said there is a shortage of both Silver Eagle coins and 100-ounce
bars. He can't get them. He said that, for the first time in his career, a
supplier that guaranteed delivery simply couldn't make good on the promise. He
also told me that platinum eagles are in serious short supply. I guess that
means someone out there is buying up the physical metal in a big way.
"The U.S. Mint has run out of one-ounce American Eagle gold coins. And it's
been rationing Silver Eagles because of the high demand.
"The U.S. mint sold 60,000 one-ounce gold coins this month, up from 47,000 in
July and 13,000 in June. When gold fell from the $900s to the $700s, small
buyers didn't sell, the way they usually do. They bought.