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The Death of Gold and Silver Stocks, Part II
By: Marc Courtenay   Wednesday, August 27, 2008 4:40 PM
Sectors: Basic Materials , Consumer Staples , Transportation
Symbols: BHP, GG, KO, PG, PM, RTP, SSRI, UPS
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When I wrote Part I yesterday and sent it off for posting, I didn't realize that the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column was going to help advance my proposition.

In this article titled, "Miner's Run Seems Over" (which is another way of saying "Mining Stocks are Dead") someone  named Arindam Nag was adding to the pessimism and negativism about mining stocks (forgive the pun, but he or she was "Nagging").

The WSJ article had this kind of sour-grapes flavor to it: "Put away that shovel. Mining stocks are getting hurt as investors anticipate a profit squeeze between rising investment costs and falling commodities prices.

The DJ Basic Resources STOXX index, which includes some of the world's main metals companies, including BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP), is down 26% in the past three months.

That has left commodities companies trading at historically low multiples of expected earnings, suggesting either the shares are undervalued or investors believe miners' run of profit growth can't continue.

The latter looks most likely. Even if commodities prices don't fall further, rising costs could be enough to squeeze..." ad nauseum.

So, as if the Nag knew what investors were thinking and doing (many of them are on vacation I'm told), he/she announces to the world that "they", the investors, believe it's curtains for the mining companies "run of profit growth."

They weren't the only one throwing cold water on the miners. Our friend Dan Ferris who pens the illuminating newsletter Extreme Value at Stansberry Research was opining about the shortage of both silver and gold coins, when he decided to weigh in on the Mining Stocks and their impending "funeral."

Dan writes, "We received this note yesterday from our own Matt Badiali:

"Just got off the phone with Van Simmons (an executive with David Hall Rare Coins). He said there is a shortage of both Silver Eagle coins and 100-ounce bars. He can't get them. He said that, for the first time in his career, a supplier that guaranteed delivery simply couldn't make good on the promise. He also told me that platinum eagles are in serious short supply. I guess that means someone out there is buying up the physical metal in a big way.

"The U.S. Mint has run out of one-ounce American Eagle gold coins. And it's been rationing Silver Eagles because of the high demand.

"The U.S. mint sold 60,000 one-ounce gold coins this month, up from 47,000 in July and 13,000 in June. When gold fell from the $900s to the $700s, small buyers didn't sell, the way they usually do. They bought.

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