Over the past two days, we've been suggesting a very cautious stance in the
market until we saw whether or not the gains from the initial positive reaction
to Monday's Fannie/Freddie news could be sustained. Just one day later, we seem
to have already gotten our answer. Stocks opened near the flat line, but the
bears quickly resumed control, sending the broad market into a steady downtrend
that persisted throughout the entire session. By the closing bell, all the major
indices had given back their previous day's gains, and a quite a bit more. The
S&P 500 plunged 3.4%, the Nasdaq Composite 2.6%, and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average 2.4%. Small and mid-cap stocks suffered the worst. The
Russell 2000 tumbled 3.5% and the S&P Midcap 400 nosedived 3.9%. All the
main stock market indexes closed at their dead lows of the day.
Total volume in the NYSE eased 2% from Monday's swift pace, while volume in
the Nasdaq was on par with the previous day's level. Turnover remained well
above average levels, pointing to the presence of institutional selling
yesterday. Market internals were atrocious, as broad selling was noted in every
major industry sector. In the NYSE, declining volume trounced advancing volume
by a margin of 9 to 1. The Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio was negative by an
astonishing spread of 13 to 1. With such bearish market internals, there was
nowhere for bulls to run and hide yesterday.
In yesterday's commentary, we expressed suspicion over the narrow breadth of
Monday's news-inspired rally. Although both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained more than 2% that day, advancing volume in the NYSE
was only nominally higher than declining volume. Because the rally was largely
focused on the financial-related sectors, we said, "Our overall assessment is
that it was nothing more than a sector-specific bear market rally." As such, we
were not surprised that stocks moved lower yesterday; however, we didn't
necessarily expect a sell-off of such magnitude to follow just one day later.
Fortunately, we avoided getting sucked into the excitement of Monday
morning's knee-jerk rally that followed news of the U.S. government's seizure of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With such massive amounts of overhead supply to
contend with, we felt it would be difficult for the main stock market indexes to
sustain Monday's initial gains without a period of price consolidation.
Nevertheless, we also weren't keen on taking new short positions, as stocks had
jumped back into their choppy, sideways ranges that challenged traders
throughout much of August. Though we've intentionally avoided new positions so
far this week, our only open ETF position, which we bought last week, is now
looking great.