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Technical Analysis: Charts With Solid Risk/Reward
By: Market Folly   Thursday, September 11, 2008 2:13 AM
Sectors: Basic Materials , Finance , Industrial Products , Utilities
Symbols: BJRI, FCX, GS, SBS
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Just wanted to breeze through some charts really quick, since it's been a while. Time for some good old technical analysis. Ok, right to it. BJ's Restaurants. Simply put, this place is a clusterf*ck. They're facing rising input costs and slower dining traffic. As I've written about here and here, the consumer environment just isn't that hot right now. In fact, its accelerating to the downside. So, this place will only get squeezed harder. Their solution? Raise prices faster. Oh, great, that will really get struggling consumers in the door. BJRI is hurting so much for any type of positive news that it was up 9% yesterday on an analyst upgrade. Yes, one upgrade. Well, the good news is that this fluke of a 9% move gives us a low risk opportunity here. Check out the chart below.
(click to enlarge)

As you can see, BJRI used to bounce right off of support at $13.5 way back in April and May. Then, the stock ripped lower. It has already tried to test $13.5 once in August and it failed. Well, it's right back up at those levels again. $13.5 was past support and thus is now future resistance. The analyst upgrade today moved the stock up to a high of $13.62. So, a low risk play here would be to short BJRI at these levels and then place your stop just above the resistance (and the 200 day moving average) at around $14 or so. You can be the judge as to how tight of a stop you want to use here. One thing to note if you want to play this from the short-side: be cautious because the recent move upwards has had some volume behind it. Because, as you've seen yesterday, the slightest bit of positive news can send these consumer related names flying. Conversely, if you do get stopped out, you could just flip your trade to the long side. Because, if BJRI breaks out above its 200 day moving average, as well as above the strong resistance at $13.50, it has the potential to go much higher. Another option would be to just stand on the sidelines to see which way it is going to move and then pile on. The point here is that BJRI has very clear risk/reward in both directions. Watch it and play it however you're comfortable.

Next up, I want to point out the large channel Goldman Sachs (GS) has been trading in for a long while. I meant to post this up a few weeks ago, but I've been so busy that I forgot.
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