Yeah, I’m thinkin’ Big Wednesday once again and thanking family friend Chris
Spezzano for the image. When I was young I used to…nevermind.
Blogging
this market everyday shortly after the close seems useless since the news cycle
is moving faster than prices. I’m just gonna say this is as volatile a week as
we and most others predicted, and it’s not over.
Imagine: the government
is now a constituent member of the DJIA thru its ownership of AIG. What
financial company is left as a substitution? Should it be another financial
company? Or, will the powers that be do something sexier and more contemporary
like Google?
The government is more active directly or indirectly in
markets as many Plunge Protection Team conspirators believed there can be no
doubt.
ETN [Exchange Traded Notes] sponsors are starting to feel the
heat as investors doubt the quality of guarantees.
CNY [Van Eck Renminbi ETN] is a
case in point where yesterday, without much movement in the currency, the issue
was down 6%. Today it was as low as $29.37 or another 22% before recouping on
heavy volume to over $39 very heavy volume for it.
We, Greg Newton and
I, were in communication yesterday and today with both Van Eck and Morgan
Stanley with the latter having the guarantee. With pressure mounting on MS it
seems holders of
CNY are
questioning this guarantee.
Speaking of the renminbi and China there’s
this
little article from the People’s Daily suggesting a new world currency
arrangement. It’s pretty pathetic to have them lecture us about regulation and
corporate governance issues since things have yet to be tested there. I remember
visiting the Chairman of the Shanghai Exchange in 1993 and his knowledge of
these issues was poor. But they’ve learned much since then. In fact, global
conditions probably require some realignment which isn’t necessarily a bad thing
since we asked for it with our stupid policies.
Volume remains heavy and
breadth probably posting another negative 90/10 day.
Like I said, by the time I got to the end of
this post there’s already
more breaking news.
This time it’s a story/rumor MS and WB are having merger talks and that WM has
put itself up for sale. When we wake-up Monday we may have a completely
different financial landscape. Lots of good people will lose their jobs in
consolidations and perhaps more bankruptcies. But financial firms are in full
panic mode.
This week isn’t even over yet and there are more thrills and
spills yet to come.
One thing I’m not seeing yet is complete
capitulation. That may still happen. We’re getting close and are deeply
oversold.
There’s nothing wrong with carrying large cash positions.
We’re nearly 80% in cash with the balance in short positions. Some days you wish
you had more of the latter and others not. You either trade this market in very
short time periods or with conviction and lots of courage.
Just
remember, the biggest mouth on Wall Street and on TV is not permitted by his
contract to short. He and his sponsors want you to “buy, buy, buy!”
Let’s see what happens next.
Have a pleasant evening.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short
positions in: SDS, QID, SMN, SIJ SDP,
IEF,
TLT,
EEM, EEV,
EFA, EFU and
FXI.