THE FINAL NUMBERS - MORE FINANCIAL DISTRESS AND GOLDEN GOOSE
NEWS: The markets were on the defensive from the time the opening bell rang
and once again experienced a volatile trading session. When the closing bell
rang the indices were sitting near the lows of the session and the Dow was off
440 points or 4.1%. The S&P 500 tumbled 57 points or 4.7% and the NASDAQ was
the hardest hit with a drop of 109 points or 4.9%.The three major indices along
with the NYSE Composite are trading at new multi-year lows. The Russell 2000 is
not yet at a new low, but was down 4.8% today.
The big news today was the surge in commodity prices. Gold closed higher by
$70 to finish at $850.50/ounce. In after hours trading the yellow metal rallied
another $40 and was last trading near $890. The move was the largest point move
ever for the gold futures and the biggest one-day percentage move in 9 years.
Oil also moved higher, gaining $6.01 and closed at $97.16/barrel. Crude was also
higher in after hours trading, closing in on $98.
THE BOTTOMLINE: Today was a day in which it was extremely difficult to find a
stock that was higher. All 30 Dow stocks were lower and only 21 of the 500
S&P stocks were able to post a gain. Of the 21 higher stocks, 10 were
commodity related only 7 gained over 2%. To put this into perspective, you had a
1 in 25 chance (4%) of picking a winning stock in the S&P 500. You had the
same odds of picking a stock in the S&P 500 that was down at least 12%! When
you consider the numbers that were on the table today as an investor you have to
be happy with taking a minimal loss in your portfolio. So how was that possible?
DIVERSIFICATION.
If you had exposure to the gold stocks or commodity ETFs you could have
performed much better than the market and helped lessen the blow of a nearly 5%
drop in one day. For example, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rallied
11.6% and the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) gained 11.3%. Any way you want to look at it,
right now the key to keeping your portfolio from complete obliteration is
diversification. On days like this if you would have been heavily invested in
financials your portfolio would have been crushed. The same can be said if you
were overexposed to energy stocks earlier this month. But a prudent mix of
sectors we feel are capable of outperforming the market over the long-term have
been our savior. Granted from day to day some of the sectors will underperform
the market, but as a whole they have been able to hold up better then the
indices, which is the goal in a bear market. Sure I would love to make money
every month, but I am also realistic and have been around the market long enough
to know there will be bad months and even years.