It's no secret that it's been quite a week in the financial markets:
gold posted record gains, the
Dow and the S&P 500 tested major support levels before retracing.
But there are two key pieces of data that are perhaps more revelatory in terms of understanding how we are at a major turning point in how financial markets operate:
1.
VIX, a measure of volatility in options prices of the S&P 500, is
at an all-time high
2.
ETFs hit record volume
The volatility suggests this is not a buy and hold market; this is a trader's market. The mutual fund strategy of buying and holding is simply not feasible in such market conditions, as Bill Cara correctly noted. And judging by the record-setting volume and the fondness for ETFs, it seems as though market participants are reacting appropriately to the increased volatility, and are embracing the active trading that ETFs enable that conventional mutual funds do not.
So what next? Well, as markets become more speculative rather than investment-oriented, it seems only a matter of time before technical analysis becomes the dominant basis for decision-making. The economic implications are profound; essentially, what is happening is that markets will increasingly dictate economic reality, rather than economic reality being the primary dictator of financial markets.
What exactly does this mean? I suppose we'll have to wait and see to know for sure. Though one thing is for certain: brush up on your technical analysis, and get ready to trade shorter time frames.