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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Actionable Short Call
By: Notable Calls   Monday, September 29, 2008 8:44 AM
Sectors: Computer and Technology
Symbols: AAPL, DELL, RIMM
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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shareholders are going to bleed from their eyeballs today:

- Morgan Stanley is out with a downgrade to Equal Weight (from OW), lowering their tgt to $115 from $178 revising FY09 EPS growth to 6% (9% below the consensus forecast) on the back of several concerns. First, PC unit growth is decelerating and the remaining source of growth is increasingly in the sub-$1,000 market where AAPL does not play. Second, even in the best of scenarios AAPL’s EPS growth will decelerate meaningfully from June quarter levels. A combination of tough compares and investments in iPhone growth drive December quarter EPS to a decline of 8% YoY (down from +29% EPS growth June). Lastly, they believe multiples for high growth stocks will continue to compress in the current environment and in the context of 6% FY09 EPS growth assumption (and consensus estimate of 15.5%) they don’t believe AAPL is immune to this trend.

Firm continues to believe AAPL’s 2-3 year market share story is intact (but now more back-end loaded) and if the market is willing to look through near-term estimate reductions (and increasingly at cash flow), the stock could work from recently reduced levels.

- RBC Capital is downgrading AAPL to Sector Perform on: 1) reduced visibility to growth, margins; 2) elevated risks to valuation.

Sept RBC IQ/Changewave data (4,300) shows Mac purchase intentions suddenly moderating, with 29% intending to purchase a Mac laptop next 90 days, down from 34% Aug. 26% intend to purchase a Mac desktop, down from 30% Aug. These are the biggest declines in 2-1/2 years. In a separate survey, Sept RBC IQ/ Changewave data (4,100) shows 40% of consumers plan on spending less on electronics next 90 days, the weakest outlook ever seen.

While Mac momentum remains strong (16% Q/Q, 34% Y/Y) RBC Q4 Mac outlook becomes 2.9M (3M prior) and we see elevated risk for disappointing Q1 guidance, below street at $11B and $1.75. They still expect Apple's global PC share to rise to 4.1% CY09, from 2.9% CY07; F09/F10 iPod unit outlook drops to -3% Y/Y (prior 10-12%).

Notablecalls: I think AAPL could test the $120 level today and there could be risk to even lower levels. It's all about what RIMM had to say. Not to mention DELL's recent comments re: demand and pricing.

Actionable short anywhere above the $123 level.

These two were the biggest AAPL bulls.

 

 
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