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Market Briefing For September 29
By: John Mugarian   Monday, September 29, 2008 12:32 PM
Sectors: Computer and Technology , Finance , Index
Symbols: BAC, EEEE, JPM, KBW, RIMM, WB, WFC, WM
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High drama, and scary outcomes surrounding the showdown of the financial rescue package has investors on the edge of their seats. Like I said a few days ago, I don't know why the politicians are making a big deal over it. Passage of the bill should be an easy decision. After all, congress just approved $25 billion in low-interest loans for U.S. automakers, and threw another $602 billion to the departments of defense, homeland security and veterans affairs. Our government has wasted billions fighting the war in Iraq, so throwing the U.S. financial system a lifeline shouldn't be that tough to pass. The war in Iraq is clearly about oil, and not weapons of mass destruction or fighting terrorism. Remember, follow the money! Speaking of money, where is all the money going from the sale of the Iraqi oil? Iraqi officials estimated that Iraq's oil revenues are around $60 billion, with 80 percent of the revenues going for the United Nations Oil for Food Program. This is insane. So, are you wondering who is making these decisions behind the scenes? The men behind the curtain of course! In March, Senators Carl Levin (D), and John Warner (R) estimated that Iraq will realize "at least $100 billion in oil revenues in 2007 and 2008." In any event, passage of the rescue package will free up bank balance sheets, and allow the flow of funds to continue between banks and businesses. The biggest problem on bank balance sheets has been the pricing of derivative instruments which cannot be valued since there is no longer a secondary market to trade them, or price them. Many of these instruments are worth something, some are worth much more than their current reported value, and some are worthless. The rescue package will give the market time to value these instruments fairly. The financial situation in the U.S. is clearly causing panic in America. So much so that the U.S. Mint suspended sales of 1 oz gold coins because of a surge in demand- Reuters With all the concerns, panic, turmoil, over the U.S. financial system, the natural instinct is to run, hide and hoard. A true blue contrarian looks at the seriousness of this grave situation as a buying opportunity. I realize it's tough. It's like jumping off an 80 story building, and after passing the 40th floor you say, "so far, so good." As long as you don't buy equities on margin, and allows keep an abundance of cash for a rainy day, investing during these turbulent times can be a bargain hunters dream. As we tiptoe into October, we are going to tiptoe back into oil.
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