Made on request of www.MarketVolume.com - the only source of volume and advance decline charts for indexes and exchanges.

To take closer look at the current sentiment on the stock market as well as to define the general market tendency I decided to take closer look at higher-time frame chart in particular on 2-year DJI chart.

Chart #1: DJI index. 2-year chart. 1 bar = 2 days. SBV(10), MVO(5,25,3).


From the chart above we may see the extremely high volume surges during the recent crash. Starting from the middle of September 2008 we had records in daily trading volume. The history of the stock market did not see such extremely huge panic selling ever before. This high volume tell us that the extremely huge number of investors left the market, yet we have some group of other investors who was buying in that period at small bargain price - some traders decided to satisfy demands of those who were leaving the stock market in panic. That is why we had this high volume (volume is two side transaction - for each seller there is a buyer).

The average trading volume on NYSE in 2007 was about 3.1 billion shares per day. The average NYSE trading volume in period from the middle of September 2007 until now is about 7 billion shares per day. Starting from September 8, 2008 more than 130 billion shares were traded. Even by assuming that the average price of a stock on NYSE is only $10 per share it will give us more the 1.3 trillion of negative money flow (out of the market).

As a rule, after a huge amount of money is taken out of the market (when SBV declines) we see a rebound (investors start to invest again). From the chart above you may see a rebound each time after SBV decline in August 2007, November 2007, January 2008 and July 2008. Each time when SBV start to advance after being at low negative levels we see that it indicates positive money flow (investors coming back). Sooner or later the investor that left the market in the result of the recent crash will come back and start to inject funds into the stocks. It could be tomorrow, it could be in a week or even a month. When it happened depends on the current political and economical factors affecting the stock market and how fast the investor could be reassured in the coming stability.

At the current moment the declining SBV on 2-year chart show that the Bearish sentiment is dominant among the mid- and long-term investors.