One failing of at least some of those who inhabit the academic world is a relentlessly popular and hopelessly arrogant delusion that human behavior can be reduced to formulas that others can or should rely on.
Economists and finance experts seem especially guilty in this respect, having dreamed up models that regularly fail to predict anything that might be of value to those who must make decisions about what the future holds.
One of the funniest example of analytical incompetence is hearing some of these so-called experts explain away equity, commodity, credit and other bubbles as if they were "exceptions" -- or didn't really exist at all.
In my view, any economist who claims, for example, that there was never a bubble in housing -- and plenty of these deniers exist -- should be stripped of their credentials and sent to live in one of those down-and-out communities where foreclosures are rampant for a bit of reality training.
Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc.
Mr. Gorton, who teaches at Yale School of Management, is best known for his influential academic papers, which have been cited in speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But he also has a lucrative part-time gig: devising computer models used by the giant insurer to gauge risk in more than $400 billion of devilishly complicated deals called credit-default swaps.
AIG relied on those models to help figure out which swap deals were safe. But AIG didn't anticipate how market forces and contract terms not weighed by the models would turn the swaps, over the short term, into huge financial liabilities. AIG didn't assign Mr. Gorton to assess those threats, and knew that his models didn't consider them. Those risks have cost AIG tens of billions of dollars and pushed the federal government to rescue the company in September.
The global financial crisis is studded with tales of venerable financial firms failing to protect themselves against the unexpected. In the case of AIG, as with many other firms, the financial horrors were hidden in the enormous market for credit-default swaps, which are a form of insurance against defaults on all sorts of debts.
A close look at AIG's risk-management operations, and the rapid-fire chain of events that crippled the firm, raises questions about the run-up to the financial crisis: Did firms like AIG plunge into lucrative but perilous new markets without thoroughly understanding the pitfalls? Had the sheer complexity of the financial products made it all but impossible to fully calculate the risk? And did firms put too much faith in computer models to assess dangers?
The turmoil at AIG is likely to fan skepticism about the complicated, computer-driven modeling systems that many financial giants rely on to minimize risk. As chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which owns insurance companies, Warren Buffett has been sounding the alarm about the issue for years. Recently, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose: "All I can say is, beware of geeks...bearing formulas."
Last December, at a meeting with investors, Martin Sullivan, then AIG's chief executive officer, told investors concerned about exposure to credit-default swaps that models helped give AIG "a very high level of comfort." Mr. Gorton explained at the meeting that "no transaction is approved" by the chief of AIG's financial-products unit "if it's not based on a model that we built."
Now, a federal criminal probe in Washington is examining whether AIG executives misled investors at that meeting, and whether any of its executives misled its outside auditor last fall. AIG itself has been forced to post about $50 billion in collateral to its trading partners, largely to offset sharp drops in the value of securities it insured with the credit-default swaps. These payments have continued to balloon after the bailout -- raising the specter that the government will eventually have to lend more taxpayer money to AIG.
This account of AIG's risk-management blunders is based on more than two dozen interviews with current and former AIG executives, AIG's trading partners and others with direct knowledge of the firm, as well as internal AIG documents, regulatory filings and congressional testimony. Mr. Gorton, who continues to be a paid AIG consultant, referred questions about his role to AIG. Mr. Sullivan declined to comment.
AIG's credit-default-swaps operation was run out of its AIG Financial Products Corp. unit, which had offices in London and Wilton, Conn. In essence, AIG sold insurance on billions of dollars of debt securities backed by everything from corporate loans to subprime mortgages to auto loans to credit-card receivables. It promised buyers of the swaps that if the debt securities defaulted, AIG would make good on them. AIG executives, not Mr. Gorton, decided which swaps to sell and how to price them.
The swaps expose AIG to three types of financial pain. If the debt securities default, AIG has to pay up. But there are two other financial risks as well. The buyers of the swaps -- AIG's "counterparties" or trading partners on the deals -- typically have the right to demand collateral from AIG if the securities being insured by the swaps decline in value, or if AIG's own corporate-debt rating is cut. In addition, AIG is obliged to account for the contracts on its own books based on their market values.
