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The Investor’s Guide To The Video Game Industry
By: Money Morning   Saturday, November 29, 2008 12:00 PM
Symbols: AAPL, ATVI, ERTS, GME, INTC, KNM, LOGI, MCZ, MSFT, NFLX, NOK, THQI, TTWO
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Despite all of the uncertainty of 2008, video game sales have been booming.

U.S. sales of video game hardware, software, and accessories surged 36% in the first half of the year to $8.27 billion. That even outpaces the $6.1 billion grossed over the same period in 2007, which was a record year for the industry.

Indeed, the video game industry has acquired the reputation of being recession proof, and the statistics bear that out.

In 2002, after the technology bubble burst, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22%. Meanwhile, video gaming revenue climbed 43%.

And after a banner year in 2007, in which industry sales soared 50% to an all-time high of $18.85 billion, 2008 - even with all of its misgivings - is shaping up to be a new industry standard.

Worldwide revenue is expected to exceed $57 billion in 2008, up 35% from the 2007 record of  $41.9 billion.

With 267 million video games sold, an average of nine games per second were carried out of retail stores across the country last year.

But as remarkable as that is, video games are flying off the shelves even faster in 2008, with sales up 41% in the first half of the year.

As the world’s leading format of entertainment, the video game industry had global sales of $41.9 billion in 2007 - double the total sales of 2002, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

At this rate, global sales will hit $68.3 billion by 2012. That’s a 10.3% annual increase over the next four years.

Below is an analysis of 15 of the most anticipated video games set for release this season.  And that’s just the beginning of an investor’s guide that details which games, consoles, and companies are primed for success over the next year.

The Video Game Cheat Sheet 

Video games have come a long way from the days of Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, and Pong

There are gun-toting shooter games like Call of Duty, Halo, and Grand Theft Auto.  There are fantasy, or role-playing games (RPGs), like Spore and Final Fantasy, that allow players to reshape an imaginary world in their own image.

And now, with recent advances in motion and sensory technology, there are games like Guitar Hero, MarioKar, and Wii Fit, that allow players to become active participants in the games they play, and physically control the onscreen action.

Here’s a quick look at the games that have sold the most copies over the past 12 months, in order of sales to date. (Note that the sales figures are approximate, and that the release date is the first date the game was released globally.)

1. Call of Duty 4 for the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and PC (10 million copies sold-Released November 6, 2007)-Activision, now Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)

2. Halo 3 for the Xbox 360 (8 million copies sold -Released September 25, 2007)-Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)

3. Grand Theft Auto 4 for the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and PC (6.5 million copies sold -Released April 29, 2008)-Take Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO)

4. Mario Kart Wii for the Wii (6.5 million copies sold -Released April 10, 2008)-Nintendo Co. Ltd. (Pink Sheets: NTDOY)

5. Super Mario Galaxy for the Wii (6 million copies sold -Released November 1, 2007)-Nintendo

6. Super Smash Bros. Brawl for the Wii (5 million copies sold -Released January 31, 2008)-Nintendo

7. Wii Fit for the Wii (5 million copies sold -Release December 1, 2007 (in Japan, later elsewhere)-Nintendo

8. Metal Gear Solid 4 for the PlayStation 3 (3 million copies sold -Released June 12, 2008)-Konami Corp. (NYSE: KNM)

These are the games that have proven most popular over the past year. It’s important to note that all, except one, Wii Fit, are sequels to previous releases. This is important because it shows that gamers are most comfortable buying and playing updated releases of games they’ve enjoyed in the past.

Likewise, the newest installment of the popular John Madden NFL football series is a sure-fire seller every year.

Of course, knowing what has sold in the past isn’t enough. That’s why we took the time to analyze 15 games set for release heading into next year. We’ve detailed each game’s unique appeal and whether or not it is likely to succeed or fail.

(Note: all upcoming release dates are subject to extreme change at the discretion of the publisher.)

Spore

Publisher: Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS)
Release Date: Released
Platform: PC

This is one of the most interesting games that have ever come from the creative genius that is Will Wright (the creator of SimCity and The Sims - two games that have won video game audiences over with formats that let players take control of their own make believe worlds).

Like many of the best sellers we looked at earlier, the appeal of Spore is that it elaborates on an already popular format - namely simulation. Rather than managing a city, or simulating a human life, this game almost literally lets users "play God."

The player starts off as a single cell, which grows into an organism and interacts with other life forms. In its unique life cycle the organism founds cities and eventually ventures into space.  Of course what is most intriguing about Spore is its application of user-generated content. Almost everything in the game can be created and customized by users, giving them complete control over the environment surrounding their life form. Users can then share their creations with others over the Internet.

The game is impressive in its vastness and depth.  Users are presented with a vast and epic universe, which makes exploration part of the fun. The final stage in the game consists of over 500,000 planets, each with its own unique landscape and organisms. It is literally impossible to explore all 500,000 in an average human life (though many will try).

This game will almost certainly revitalize the market for PC gaming - a sector that has lost ground to PlayStation, XBox, and Wii consoles. 

Madden NFL 09

Publisher: Electronic Arts
Release Date: Released
Platform: Nintendo DS, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, PlayStation Portable, Wii, Xbox, Xbox 360

The Madden NFL franchise is, perhaps the most successful in the industry. A new version comes out every year with new rosters and new gimmicks that add depth and playability. It is the only game officially licensed by the National Football League, which means it is the only game that can use NFL teams, logos, stadiums, and active players.

Besides having much better graphics and more realistic physics engine than previous installments, Madden 09 delivers an assortment of new game play additions such as control when being tackled, a skill test that lets the CPU adjust to a players ability, and a replay system that analyzes what a player did wrong on any given play.

The online mode has been revamped to be easier and more efficient to use as well as more interactive.

This game appeals as much to young gamers as it does to 20 and 30-somethings who wish they could join the action they see on the field every Sunday.

Madden has been a cash cow for its publisher, Electronic Arts, and will continue to be so long as professional football is popular in the United States. It was the top selling video game in the third quarter of 2008, selling nearly 3 million copies.

Little BigPlanet

Publisher: Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE)
Release Date: Released
Platform: PlayStation 3

Like Spore, LittleBigPlanet is a creation game. It lets players author their own game and their own experience by building a two-dimensional level of their choice. Whether a user wants to create a game where you have to solve a puzzle in order to advance or a game that lets you do whatever you want, all the tools are at their disposal. Users can then share that level with players online, essentially turning the game into a community effort.

This is a very good example of a game that is, in a sense timeless, because players are only limited by their imagination and can construct as many levels as they like. With plenty of hype going into the Christmas season LittleBigPlanet could be a big hit for Sony and its PS3 console.

God of War III

Publisher: Sony
Release Date: 2009
Platform: PlayStation 3

There is little known about this game to date. However, with the hype it is already generating and the quality of its two predecessors, I am fully confident that this game will become a pinnacle part of the PlayStation 3 library. The following is all assumed: This game will be a traditional hack-n-slash game. It will take place around the Ancient Greek era.

In the U.S., this is what is written on God of War II’s rating label: Blood and Gore, Intense Violence, Nudity, Sexual Themes, Strong Language. Well, that speaks for itself, doesn’t it?

However, a lot of games can say the same thing. What sets this one apart is the combination of a fluid combat system that makes even the most lousy gamer feel like a pro and a puzzle system that is actually fun to figure out.

Final Fantasy XIII

Publisher: Square-Enix Co. Ltd. (TYO: 9684)
Release Date: 2009
Platform: PlayStation 3, Xbox 360

Originally, this game was meant for the PS3 but after E3 2008 (a video game convention), the game went on to the Xbox 360 as well and shocked many gamers. Thanks to the hype that generated and to the sheer amazing graphics and game play of a Final Fantasy game, this game will quite possibly redefine the RPG (role-playing game) genre — or at least sell the usual multi-million copies that Final Fantasy games sell.

This game lets the player take the role of a traditionally heroic character (or one that becomes heroic) and find in-game friends to do battle with. In doing this, the player’s stats (things such as health, attack power, magic power, etc) are raised. Then, with your new stats, you go fight more things and have adventures (and usually save the world but that’s generally a side-victory).

Resident Evil 5

Publisher: Capcom Co. Ltd. (TYO: 9697)
Release Date: JP-March 12, 2009   EU+NA-March 13, 2009
Platform: PlayStation 3, Xbox 360

This game has been in the works for quite a while now and with the release of new trailers, it’s becoming one of the most anticipated games of 2009. The game focuses on the origins of the Resident Evil series, while still being a true sequel. The series is focused on surviving in a world that is dominated by a rogue virus that turns people into zombie-like creatures.

Zombies. No, seriously, you shoot zombies. You survive. What’s there not to like? The game is going to be a pinnacle step in horror games. The same people that love horror movies want to be able to participate in those movies interactively.


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