The Chinese word for crisisis weiji.
But get this - when translated literally, wei means danger and
ji means opportunity. So to the Chinese, a crisis - or danger - represents
an opportunity.
Of course, you don’t have to actually speak Chinese to understand what this
mindset means for investors.
What you’re seeing in China today is nothing less than the classic definition
of a crisis presenting the profit opportunity of a lifetime.
While investors in U.S. markets are mostly concerned about saving their
necks, China has been stacking the deck in favor of those who have the guts to
pull the trigger on the most undervalued market in memory.
Here’s why you should consider taking an early position in China in 2009.
The Mother of All Stimulus Plans
While it’s not old news, the current crisis in U.S. financial markets is all
too familiar. The Standard & Poor’s
500 Index is down almost 40% from its 52-week high and there seems to be no
end in sight.
Worse, the malaise encompassing the United States has clearly spread to the
rest of the world, including China.
So it appears that what investors once considered to be the greatest
investment opportunity of our lifetime has imploded - just another financial
black hole where portfolios go to die.
Truth be told, however, there is ample evidence that China’s economy and
markets will weather the storm and ultimately thrive in the year ahead.
The
Chinese economy has been the fastest growing in the world for the last three
decades, averaging double-digit growth for the last seven years. And while the
credit crisis has slammed on the brakes in terms of growth in the West, China is
still on track for a solid 8% growth in 2009.
But the Red Dragon isn’t about to take any chances. With $2 trillion in
foreign exchange reserves available, China can increase the growth rate of its
economy - even as it
works to boost economic recovery efforts elsewhere in the world.
And that’s just what it’s about to do.
The People’s Republic of China has already announced a $586 billion (4
trillion yuan) spending package. To put that in perspective, this plan amounts
to a staggering 20% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). Compare that to
the $1 trillion in U.S. bailouts, which equate to about 8% of GDP.
And China’s reserves won’t be doled out in dribs and drabs. The
plan calls for spending the whole amount in just a few years.
To further grease the recovery skids, China has reduced
interest rates five times in the last three months, and loosened lending
rules. Now China’s banks are perfectly positioned to get the ball rolling,
flush with cash from a world-leading savings rate of 35%. And because they are
state-owned, the cash will flow quickly from the banks to government projects.
The convergence of the recent market swoon and the stimulus plan means you
now have the opportunity to buy great companies at the dawn of the Chinese
century.