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Analyst Comments: Myriad Genetics, KT Corporation, Magellan Midstream, Hershey, Equifax Thursday, February 07, 2008 10:24 AM
Sectors: Computer and Technology
, Medical
, Consumer Staples
, Business Services
Symbols: EFX, HSY, KTC, MMP, MYGN
Our six-month $26 price target is based on a target P/E of 11.5x our 2007 EPADS estimate.
Steady Results for Hold-Rated Magellan
Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P.'s (MMP) fourth-quarter 2007 results came in better-than-expected, driven by strong petroleum products results, partly offset by moderately weaker than expected performance from the partnership's marine terminals. Importantly, the partnership raised its quarterly distribution for the 27th consecutive quarter to the annualized run rate of $2.63 per unit, up 9.1% year over year.
The company reported earnings available to limited partners of $49.6 million or $0.74 per unit (our estimate was $0.69 per unit), compared to $42.7 million or $0.64 per unit in the year-earlier quarter. The positive year-over-year variance strong petroleum product's pipeline system results, reduced operating expenses, higher average transportation rates and volumes on the pipeline.
We are increasing our 2008 estimate to $2.72 per unit from $2.58 and introducing our 2009 estimate at $2.80 per unit. Our Hold recommendation and 12-month price objective of $40 remain unchanged.
Optimistic on Hershey's New Brass
The Hershey Company (HSY) is not satisfied with the company's recent results and has replaced eight directors and the CEO. The new management team, led by David West, is expected to recharge growth at Hershey's in addition to continuing with the three-year Global Supply Chain transformation plan.
Since the stock is at the low end of its historical valuation range, Hershey's stock is attractive and remains rated a Buy. The stock is currently trading at the lower end of the five year P/E range at 18. Hershey's EPS growth should begin re-accelerating in mid-2008 by focusing on core products, introducing new products, reducing costs, and expanding operations overseas.
We expect Hershey's stock to trade in a P/E multiple range of 20 to 31. Despite the recent earnings disappointments and reduced earnings guidance in 2007, the stock appears to be attractively valued at the current levels. The stock price target of $52 is based on a P/E multiple of 28 times our depressed 2008 EPS estimate.
EFX Mortgage Biz Keeps It a Hold
Equifax Inc. (EFX) is finding new avenues for growth in the international, personal, and commercial solution businesses, while its U.S. consumer information solution business is also showing signs of improvement. The company's growing reliance on subscription revenue provides a steady revenue stream, and the TALX acquisition is accretive to earnings.
However, continued weakness in mortgage activity has resulted in a 7.8% decline in mortgage related revenues in 2007. Thus, we maintain a Hold recommendation on EFX shares.
We believe that the stock will perform in-line with the broader equity market over the near-term. Therefore, our new target price of $36 represents a multiple of 14.2x our 2008 EPS estimate, a discount to the industry mean and S&P 500.
 
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