Yen Carry Trade Massively Unwinds As Investors Trade Out Of Stocks For Commodities
Monday, July 07, 2008 3:29 PM
Sectors: Basic Materials , Commodity , Oils/Energy , Finance , Forex
Symbols: ACH, AKS, BP, CLF, CNX, COG, JRCC, PCU, X
Disinvestment in global construction companies is exemplified by today's fall of Fluor Corporation, FLR, 6%, and Catepillar, CAT, 5%.

Exxon Mobil, XOM, closed down 1% at 87.41; for historical purposes I record its Market Cap as $462 Billion; with a PE (ttm) of 11.36; dividend of $1.60 and yield of 1.80%.

The Financial Jockeys, those who ride the midcaps sold out today; the 3.32% loss in the Joc-K-Hee iShares Morningstar Mid Growth Index, JKH, being a case in point; its trading stock values show a May 20th, 2008 termination of Bernanke rally, and June 6,2008 and June 18, 2008, unwinding of yen carry trade investing as they were moved by announcement of the minutes of Bank of Japan meetings that inflation presents investment risk.

Banks, such as Regions Financial, and Bank of America together with bond guarantor, MBIA, led the financial sector lower today
MBIA, MBI, 7.2%, and Regions Financial, RF, 8.5%, Bank of America, BAC, 5.3%, taking the financial sector, IYF, 1.5% lower.

The chart of overall stock market relative to the financial sector, VTI:IYF weekly, relates the dislocation that is coming from the financialization sector. The sector that was the financial engine of capitalism has gone into reverse -- that which once financial asset inflationary is now financial asset asset deflationary.

The issue that is the catalyst for deflation of overall world stock wealth, VEU, is debt of all types; which is seen in debt's weekly charts: aggregate, AGG, corporate, HYG, governmental, BTTRX.

This debt is now being liquidated and will continually be done away with with the result being the application of the Liquidation Thesis: government services and payments, service sector jobs, public and private debt of all types, and unfunded retiree benefits are going liquidated, that is done away with.

Currencies were volatile today, with the "gold currencies" supporting gold and moving the dollar lower
British Pound, FXB down to 199.44
Aussie, FXA, up to 96.39
Swiss krona, FXS, up to 157.75
Yen, FXY, unchanged at 94.15
Euro, FXE, up to 158.81
Lonnie, FXC, up to 98.66

An investment demand for gold is clearly underway
The chart of gold relative to stocks, GLD:VEU, shows an investment demand for gold is underway which began strongly in late 2007 in response to the Fed's December 11, 2007 announcement of a 0.75% interest rate cut. And then the investment demand for gold picked up steam on May 11, 2008 as institutional investors traded out of the high paying bank and investment banker stocks, PEY, to go long commodity indexed funds, such as RJI, and oil, USO, and gold, GLD.

Then once again, investment demand for gold picked on June, 6, 2008 and June 20, 2008 (as evidenced by sell off in the trading of the Russell 2000 Growth, IWO, and Aluminum Corporation of China, ACH), as yen carry trade investors sold out of their traditional investments in the BRICS, and transportation, IYT, and Russell 2000, IWO; and went long commodities, RJI, oil, uso, gold, GLD, and agriculture, DBA.

The recent Ben Bernanke-FOMC announcement of a 2.0% central bank interest rate is seen as a weak dollar policy: this can be seen in the chart of USD/JPY turning down from 108.4 to today's 105.86: this has stimulated gold, as gold trades inversely of the US Dollar.

Accumulated evidence presented in this blog, the Resourceful Bear Blog, is clear, cogent and convincing: the Federal Reserve's actions of lowering the central bank interest rate and the provision of TAF, TSLF, and PDCF facilities have debased the US Currency and inflated the price of commodities, oil gold and agricultural products and deflated stock value world wide.

Gold, $GOLD, close up at $945; and the gold ETF, GLD at $93; while the US Dollar, $USD, closed down at strong resistance at $72, yet this is also the edge of a massive head and shoulder pattern, with support lower at 71.25; and then nothing but thin air until $69.

Commodities across the board rose with oil
Oil's, USO, 1.95% price rise, took $CRB, commodities across the board higher:
Commodities, RJI, 1.3%
Gold, GLD, 0.5%
Base Metals, JJM, 1.9%
Copper, JJC, 2.8%
Agriculture, DBA, 1.9%

Commodities, as a whole, both oil and gold look very much topped out: RJI Daily shows a dark cloud cover candlestick followed by weakness; and RJI weekly shows a dragon fly candlestick.

I believe that a sell off is imminent in commodities, only to be followed by oil moving higher once again and gold soaring beyond belief.

US Treasuries manifest as bearish
Although trading up today, the US Government Bond ETF, TLT, manifests as bearish having fallen in a bear cross, with 50 day moving average crossing over 200 day average; and the chart shows a lollipop hanging man candlestick in late 2007 serving as a dark cloud covering; and the shooting star candlestick of March 19, 2008, all relate that wealth can no longer be preserve by investing in Treasuries.

Fugitive financier turns himself in
Eddy Elfenbein reports that Samuel Israel, the fugitive hedge-fund firm founder convicted of directing a $400 million fraud at Bayou Group LLC, surrendered in Massachusetts, almost a month after fleeing instead of starting his 20-year prison sentence.

The 'Age of financial disinvestment and instability' and the 'Age of State Corporate Rule' have commenced
The five year crack up boom in stock wealth, seen in the ongoing five year Yahoo Finance chart of the energy service companies, OIH, and the HUI indexed precious metal mining shares, is history.

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