A recession will impact silver harder than gold because fabrication
demand will ease as consumers buy fewer electronics.
At the same time that demand may ease, silver's supply is increasing. New
mines have come online recently, bringing a surplus of product to the
market.
"That could weigh on the price of silver," says Joe Foster, portfolio manager
of the Van Eck International Gold Fund (INIVX). "Meanwhile, the supply of gold
is tighter due to declining gold production. However, I think silver will follow
gold wherever it goes. If gold makes new highs, then silver will make new highs
too. Silver is a much thinner and more volatile market. It takes a lot less
demand to get the price moving higher."
Platinum
Unlike gold and silver, fundamental supply and demand drives platinum much
more than the investment market. And for the past four years, there have been
supply deficits.
Approximately 80% of the world's platinum comes from South Africa. For more
than a year, electrical problems and rolling blackouts in South Africa have
created supply disruptions. The mines are still not running at full capacity.
Yet, as supply tightens, demand increases. This sparked the rally that pushed
platinum to a high of $2,278 in March. Investor demand for the Platinum ETF in
London also pushed the metal higher. But platinum is extremely volatile, and
like gold and silver, it experienced a correction.
A large part of the platinum market goes into catalytic converters for cars.
Signs of an economic slowdown in the U.S., including falling demand for cars,
pushed platinum sharply lower in July. On Thursday, it closed at $1,744. Yet,
even as U.S. auto demand falls, worldwide demand, especially in Asia, continues
to rise.
"Demand is expected to be strong even though the U.S. is flirting with
recession, because economic growth will still be positive globally," says David
Jollie, publications manager at Johnson Matthey, a refiner and manufacturer of
platinum products. "Platinum is used for computer hard discs and that demand is
rising."
Jollie says it's difficult to tell where platinum will end the year because
the commodity market looks weaker than six months ago. There is upside
potential, but the signs aren't clear.