Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced
that in response to persistent and unfounded speculation regarding Ambac’s
liquidity situation, it has released information about collateral
requirements and terminations of its investment agreement business
related to recent actions by the rating agencies. “Despite
the challenging current environment, it is important for us to
continually communicate that we have ample liquidity to manage our
commitments going forward,” said Chairman and
Chief Executive Officer, Michael Callen, “Our
company-wide resources available are a multiple of any conceivable
collateral or termination requirement in our financial services
businesses.”
Rating agency actions affecting Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) during
June resulted in $506 million of increased collateral posting
requirements in the investment agreement business and investment
agreement terminations of $270 million:
-
The downgrade of AAC by Standard & Poor’s
to AA on June 5, 2008, resulted in an incremental collateral posting
requirement of approximately $76 million.
-
Moody’s downgrade of AAC to Aa3 on June 19,
2008, resulted in an incremental collateral posting requirement of
approximately $70 million and investment agreement terminations of
approximately $270 million.
-
The action by Fitch to withdraw the ratings of AAC on June 26, 2008,
resulted in an incremental collateral posting requirement of
approximately $360 million.
The current collateral and termination obligations have been adequately
covered by the investment agreement asset portfolio.
Aggregate collateral requirements and terminations for the investment
agreement business at various AAC rating levels, starting with the lower
of AAC’s two current ratings (currently Moody’s
at Aa3), are as follows:
|
($ in billions)
|
Current
Aa3
|
|
A+/A1
|
|
A/A2
|
|
A-/A3
|
|
Cumulative collateral requirement
|
$2.7
|
|
$4.6
|
|
$6.0
|
|
$5.8
|
|
Cumulative terminations
|
$0.3
|
|
$0.6
|
|
$0.6
|
|
$0.9
|
|
Total cumulative collateral and terminations
|
$3.0
|
|
$5.2
|
|
$6.6
|
|
$6.7
|
|
Market value of investment agreement asset
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
portfolio at 5/31/08
|
$5.6
|
|
$5.6
|
|
$5.6
|
|
$5.6
|
|
Market value of investments in excess of /
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(deficient to) cumulative collateral
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
requirement and terminations
|
$2.6
|
|
$0.4
|
|
($1.0)
|
|
($1.1)
|
The book value of investment agreement liabilities at May 31, 2008,
amounted to $6.9 billion (down from $7.7 billion at December 31, 2007).
The market value of the investment agreement asset portfolio, including
cash of approximately $400 million, as of May 31, 2008, is approximately
$5.6 billion. In addition, the market value of interest rate derivative
contracts held by the investment agreement business is positive $160
million.
Based on May 31, 2008 investment agreement asset portfolio market values:
-
Upon a downgrade of AAC to A+ or A1, which Ambac believes is unlikely,
Ambac estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio has
sufficient value to meet projected cumulative collateral requirements
and terminations.
-
Upon a downgrade to A or A2, which Ambac believes is unlikely, Ambac
estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio is
insufficient to cover the projected cumulative collateral requirement
and terminations by approximately $1.0 billion.
-
Upon a downgrade to A- or A3, which Ambac believes is unlikely, Ambac
estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio is
insufficient to cover the projected cumulative collateral requirement
and terminations by approximately $1.1 billion.
In the event of cash and/or security shortfalls in the investment
agreement business, management anticipates utilizing the resources of
AAC (through inter-company transactions). Utilizing the resources of AAC
would allow time for the assets in the investment agreement asset
portfolio to recover in value and would preempt claims on insurance
policies issued by AAC and prevent the realization of losses in the
investment agreement asset portfolio. Ambac is in discussions with the
Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (OCI)
with respect to its strategies for managing the collateral posting and
termination obligations of the investment agreement business. These
discussions have been positive. Ambac believes that it will obtain OCI’s
approval of its plans to address the collateral posting and termination
obligations of the investment agreement business in the event of
downgrades to the A/A2 rating level. AAC’s
investment portfolio is valued at approximately $12 billion with over $1
billion in cash and short-term securities at May 31, 2008. At the A/A2
rating level, Ambac management would evaluate its various resources and
utilize those considered most appropriate to satisfy the contractual
obligations of the investment agreement business.
Management continues to closely monitor the cash requirements of the
investment agreement portfolio and manages the related cash and
securities portfolio accordingly. The Company expects to report its
second quarter 2008 earnings on August 6, 2008, and will provide a
comprehensive update on its financial services businesses.
Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking
statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of
management’s forward-looking statements here
or in other publications may turn out to be wrong and are based on Ambac’s
management current belief or opinions. Ambac’s
actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about
the performance of Ambac’s securities. Among
events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results
to differ materially are: (1) changes in the economic, credit, foreign
currency or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad;
(2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide credit
markets; (3) competitive conditions and pricing levels; (4) legislative
and regulatory developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) changes in our
business plan, our decision to discontinue writing new business in the
financial services area, to significantly reduce new underwriting of
structured finance business and to discontinue all new underwritings of
structured finance business for six months from March 6, 2008; (7) the
policies and actions of the United States and other governments;
(8) changes in capital requirements whether resulting from downgrades in
our insured portfolio or changes in rating agencies’
rating criteria or other reasons; (9) changes in Ambac’s
and/or Ambac Assurance’s credit or financial
strength ratings; (10) changes in accounting principles or practices
relating to the financial guarantee industry or that may impact Ambac’s
reported financial results; (11) inadequacy of reserves established for
losses and loss expenses; (12) default by one or more of Ambac Assurance’s portfolio
investments, insured issuers, counterparties or reinsurers; (13) credit
risk throughout our business, including large single exposures to
reinsurers; (14) market spreads and pricing on insured collateralized
debt obligations (“CDOs”)
and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac; (15) credit
risk related to residential mortgage securities and CDOs; (16) the risk
that holders of debt securities or counterparties on credit default
swaps or other similar agreements seek to declare events of default or
seek judicial relief or bring claims alleging violation or breach of
covenants by Ambac or one of its subsidiaries; (17) the risk that our
underwriting and risk management policies and practices do not
anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as a
result of unforeseen risks; (18) the risk of volatility in income and
earnings, including volatility due to the application of fair value
accounting, or FAS 133, to the portion of our credit enhancement
business which is executed in credit derivative form; (19) operational
risks, including with respect to internal processes, risk models,
systems and employees; (20) the risk of decline in market position;
(21) the risk that market risks impact assets in our investment
portfolio; (22) the risk of credit and liquidity risk due to unscheduled
and unanticipated withdrawals on investment agreements; (23) changes in
prepayment speeds on insured asset-backed securities; (24) factors that
may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac; (25) the
risk that we may be required to raise additional capital, which could
have a dilutive effect on our outstanding equity capital and/or future
earnings; (26) our ability or inability to raise additional capital,
including the risks that regulatory or other approvals for any plan to
raise capital are not obtained, or that various conditions to such a
plan, either imposed by third parties or imposed by Ambac or its Board
of Directors, are not satisfied and thus potentially necessary capital
raising transactions do not occur, or the risk that for other reasons
the Company cannot accomplish any potentially necessary capital raising
transactions; (27) the risk that Ambac’s
holding company structure and certain regulatory and other constraints,
including adverse business performance, affect Ambac’s
ability to pay dividends and make other payments; (28) the risk of
litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of
adverse outcomes in connection therewith, which could have a material
adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position,
profitability or cash flows; (29) changes in expectations regarding
future realization of gross deferred tax assets; (30) other factors
described in the Risk Factors section in Part I, 1A of our Annual Report
on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 and in Part II,
Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March
31, 2008, and also disclosed from time to time by Ambac in its
subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are or will be
available on the Ambac website at www.ambac.com
and at the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov;
and (31) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at
this time. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements speak
only as of the date they are made and that Ambac does not undertake to
update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events
that arise after the date the statements are made. You are therefore
advised to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects
in Ambac’s reports to the SEC.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a
holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and
financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors
around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac
Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured
finance obligations, has earned a Aa3 rating from Moody's Investors
Service, Inc. and a AA rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services;
Moody’s rating is on negative outlook while
Standard & Poor's maintains a credit watch negative. Ambac Financial
Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(ticker symbol ABK).
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
Investor/Media:
Vandana
Sharma, 212-208-3333
vsharma@ambac.com
or
Fixed
Income:
Peter Poillon, 212-208-3222
ppoillon@ambac.com