By Martha Brannigan, The Miami Herald
Aug. 4--Miami native Kenneth H. Thomas relishes his time relaxing at his Pinecrest home with his sidekick, Chevy, a 13-year-old Italian shepherd that keeps close by his side. Or fishing in the Florida Keys. But those opportunities can be rare.
Much of the time, Thomas, a nationally known banking expert, is traveling, often to Philadelphia to lecture at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, where he got his doctorate in finance. That puts him among the top-tier of frequent flyers at US Airways.
Thomas, 60, has logged four trips to China in the past year or so as part of his teaching. He also spends a lot of time on the road as a consultant for banks, especially for those that need help with the federal Community Reinvestment Act. He has written books on the act, which mandates that banks address the credit needs of the local communities they serve, including the needs of low-income groups.
Most recently, he is pushing to have the Community Reinvestment Act extended to cover investment banks, since the federal government, in a bid to stabilize jittery markets, recently authorized those institutions to borrow from the Federal Reserve's discount window, just like commercial banks are able to do.
He also is preparing to debate those who attempt to pin blame for the current banking crisis on CRA requirements that banks help meet the needs of lower-income groups in their communities.
"CRA did not get us into this mess. What got us into this mess is just bad bankers," Thomas said. "There are a lot of banks out there with very good CRA ratings that are very profitable, because of good underwriting. CRA does not cause banks to fail. It's bad bankers who cause banks to fail."
In a recent interview, Thomas, a trim man with bushy black eyebrows and a ready smile, weighed in on the state of the banking industry and the economy.
Q: When will the housing market begin to turn around?
A: I don't think the market will improve in terms of normal price appreciation until perhaps two or three years, which could be the end of 2010, maybe 2011. I don't think we're going to really have a turnaround any time soon.
We have a situation now where we have a lot of excess supply inventory in the market and where demand has fallen quite a bit. And, of course, it doesn't help to have a credit crunch, where demand falls even more, because even if you like a house you can't get a mortgage to get into one. So until supply and demand becomes more equal, we will have this continued overhang in the market.
Q: Are the U.S. banks worse off now than during the savings and loan crisis or the Third World debt crisis?
A: I think, overall, they're probably in better shape. Because during the S&L crisis we had many thrifts, including many here in South Florida, that had little or no capital. In fact, some of them had negative capital. We have nothing like that now.