(Source: Ventura County Star)

By Jenni Mintz, Ventura County Star, Calif.
Aug. 16--The sluggish economy pounded the job market in July, with nearly all sectors showing signs of weakening.
Ventura County's unemployment rate surged to 6.7 percent in July, up from 6.1 percent in June and 5.3 percent for the same month a year ago, according to the state Employment Development Department.
The last time the county's unemployment rate hit this level was in 1998, said Abel Alcocer, a labor market consultant with the EDD. He described it as "not great" but "not horrible." The last time the county broke 7 percent -- which he considers to be pretty high -- was in September 1997.
The number of unemployed people jumped to 29,000 in July, compared with 22,800 a year earlier. That's 6,200 more people out of work -- about the staff size of the county's largest private employer, Amgen Inc. in Thousand Oaks.
Industries rocked the hardest by the economic slump include construction, manufacturing and financial, which in the past year have lost 2,200, 1,600 and 1,200 jobs in the county, respectively.
But other industries also have suffered as the stock market gyrates in reaction to problems in various sectors, such as energy and retail. The July unemployment report comes on the heels of announcements this week that troubled retailers Mervyns and Linens 'n Things will shutter dozens of stores in the coming months, including several in Ventura County. The news has some city officials worried about more job losses and a decline in sales tax revenue.
"This is not only alarming, it's a bit surprising," Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, said of the unemployment rate.
It's particularly unusual for a place like Ventura, he said, which is not known as an industrial hub and has not experienced an excess of new construction or population growth.
"I think California is heading into a recession, if it's not already in one," Watkins said.
Ventura County can no longer rely on large employers such as Amgen or Countrywide Financial Corp. to provide a buffer against economic downturns, as it did during the last recession in 2001, Watkins said, adding, "I don't think we even noticed it."
The statewide outlook was even more grim, with a jobless rate of 7.3 percent in July, compared with 5.7 percent nationally.
Watkins attributed part of the disparity to California's budget deficit, and to the fact that the state is traditionally more volatile than the nation as a whole.
"We tend to do better in the good times and worse in the bad times," he said. "We expect to do a lot worse than the rest of the nation."
While construction and financial services continue to struggle in California, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a prepared statement Friday that he is encouraged about recent spikes in housing sales, while noting that other job sectors are holding steady.
"The entire nation continues to suffer through a slow economy that is affecting jobs and families here in California, which is why I am working with legislators to include a needed economic stimulus package within our state budget," Schwarzenegger said.
Ventura County has been battered by the housing meltdown, as evidenced by the losses in construction, manufacturing and financial activities. But the pain now appears to be spreading to other fields.
Professional and business services, trade, transportation and utilities, and leisure and hospitality have slashed 2,900 jobs over the past year, many of them white-collar and tourism-related positions.
Alcocer attributed the 900-job decline in leisure and hospitality to consumers' tightening their spending and driving less because of high gas prices. Most of the job losses were in hotel and food services, he said.
There was a seasonal drop of 2,600 government jobs from June to July, which Alcocer said were mostly school jobs.
Farming also experienced a month-to-month drop of 1,000 jobs in July, but that's a typical seasonal trend.
"We usually see drop-offs like this, especially over the summer," he said. But part of the decline could be a result of high diesel prices, which increase costs of transportation and operating equipment.
While the unemployment rate might seem high compared with the 3.8 percent to 4.7 percent range seen in 2006, it's still low compared to the county's high during the last major recession, when it hit 10.4 percent in July 1992, Alcocer said. During the previous downturn, the jobless rate peaked at 6.5 percent in August 2002.
"We are in a downturn, but we don't know what direction it will take," Alcocer said.
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