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S&P Picks and Pans: JPMorgan, Nordstrom, Waste Management
Monday, August 18, 2008 10:51 AM
Symbols: AW, CY, HAR, IRF, JWN, PCG, RSG, SPWR, WMI
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(Source: Business Week)trackingS&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF JPMORGAN CHASE

JPM; $37.44

We are trimming our 2008 EPS estimate by 5 cents to $2.44 in order to reflect our expectation of higher third quarter writedowns. JPMorgan recently stated in its 10-Q that it has incurred $1.5 billion [for third quarter to-date] of losses because of widening credit spreads, particularly as it pertains to mortgage-backed securities. Separately, the company agrees to buy back $3 billion worth of auction-rate-securities and pay a $25 million fine. We do not believe the purchase will reduce capital or result in material losses. We are maintaining our $48 target price, an above-peer 14.4X our 2009 EPS estimate of $3.34. /S. Plesser

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF NORDSTROM, INC.

JWN; $30.99

July-quarter EPS of 65 cents, vs. 71 cents, exceeds our estimate by a penny on effective cost controls. Same-store sales fell 6.0% as competitors' heightened promotions hurt Nordstrom's sell-through, leading to higher markdowns. Since we see ongoing markdown risk, given tough retail conditions and perceived lack of fashion must haves" in women's apparel, we trim our fiscal 2009 [Jan.] EPS estimate by 10 cents to $2.60 and initiate fiscal 2010's at $2.90. But we raise our 12-month target price by $3 to $32, a forward P/E of 10.9X our fiscal 2010 EPS forecast, at the low end of the company's 3-year historical range. /J. Asaeda

S&P REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF WASTE MANAGEMENT

WMI; $34.84

Republic Services (RSG) rejects Waste Management's sweetened buyout bid of $37 per share in cash [about $6.7 billion], saying that the new offer undervalues Republic and that it remains committed to its own acquisition of Allied Waste Industries (AW) . Waste Management says it is disappointed by Republic's reaction and will evaluate its options. In our view, Waste Management will have to restructure its proposal to include stock in order to meet its financing requirements, while offering a substantial premium to its latest bid, for Republic to even consider negotiating for a possible business combination. /S. Scharf

S&P REITERATES HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF HARMAN INTERNATIONAL

HAR; $37.40

Excluding restructuring costs, June-quarter EPS of 68 cents vs. 98 cents is $0.02 short of our estimate. Revenue growth was solid at 17%, boosted by a 24% gain in the auto unit and by a stronger euro. But operating margins shrank 545 bps to 4.4%, partly on an adverse product-mix shift in the auto segment. We expect Harman's profitability to remain under pressure as it spends to ensure several new automotive contracts are delivered on time in fiscal 2009 [Jun.]. Reflecting our expense forecast, we reduce our fiscal 2009 EPS estimate to $2.67 from $3.10, and cut our 12-month target price by $4 to $40. /J. Peters, CFA

S&P REITERATES HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF SUNPOWER CORP

SPWR; $92.58

PGE Corp. (PCG) unit Pacific Gas and Electric contracts two solar companies, including a subsidiary of SunPower, for delivery of 800MW of solar power. This includes 250MW from SunPower's High Ranch II, which is expected to begin delivering power in 2010. However, the pacts are contingent upon the extension of federal investment tax credits for renewable energy. We take favorable note of growing U.S. interest in solar energy, but see SunPower's exposure to Spanish subsidies and the upcoming spinoff from majority owner Cypress Semiconductor (CY) weighing on the shares. /C. Montevirgen

S&P REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY

VSH; $9.88

Vishay is trading down 3% this morning after it proposes to acquire International Rectifier (IRF) at $21.22 per share in cash, a total of $1.6 billion, subject to approvals. We think the deal would be expensive if completed at the proposed price and we are concerned about financial and integration risk in the near term. However, the transaction would boost Vishay's market share, eliminate a competitor, and we see long-term benefit to its margins. We keep our 12-month $12 target price based on a blend of P/E and discounted cash-flow analyses. /R. Khalid, CFA




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