Sep. 18--Retailers expect the holiday shopping season to be their busiest time of the year.

But if a forecast released yesterday by TNS Retail Forward is correct, they shouldn't get too excited.

In its annual forecast, the Columbus, Ohio-based retail think tank said it expects this holiday shopping season to be the weakest in 17 years.

The group predicted that retail sales would grow 1.5 percent this year, as opposed to 2.7 percent growth last year. In 1991, sales grew 1.2 percent.

Frank Badillo, senior economist for TNS, blamed the slowdown on a continuing economic malaise.

Any improvements in the economy "will be overwhelmed by the impact of rising unemployment, tighter credit and other hardships on families," he said.

TNS' forecast covered general merchandise stores, catalog and online sales. One of the biggest slowdowns was expected in online sales, which grew 19 percent last year. This holiday season, the prediction is 9 percent growth.

Taking a hit were furniture and home-furnishing stores, home-goods stores and home-improvement stores. TNS predicted that the sector will drop 1 percent.

In what could be good news for beleaguered Henrico County-based Circuit City Stores Inc., TNS predicted sales of consumer electronics will grow 4 percent.

Stacey Widlitz, managing director covering specialty retail for Pali Capital, said she would be shocked if sales grew by that much.

And Tuesday, when Best Buy Co. reported that second-quarter profit fell 19 percent, it said it expects same-store sales to be lower in the final half of the year.

Larger retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and price clubs were expected to see 5.6 percent growth, up nearly a percentage point from last year.

Libby Sykes, co-owner of Pink, a women's clothing store in Carytown, said she is not sure what to expect for the upcoming season.

TNS predicts a 1.3 percent decline in clothing and accessories sales after no growth last year.

"We've had a strong September, which is a good indication, but [sales have] fluctuated so much this year that it'll be interesting," Sykes said.

She said that during slow sales periods, the store needs to be a little more careful with how it operates and buys merchandise to "help us get through the not-so-good days."

But even if TNS' predictions are realized, she said, slowdowns are just part of doing business.

"We've been through this before," she said. "Retail is tough." Contact Louis Llovio at (804) 649-6348 or LLLovio@timesdispatch.com.

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