ALL BUSINESS: Bailout won't cure economic stress
Friday, October 03, 2008 5:19 PM
Symbols: C, F, MER, TM
(Source: Associated Press/AP Online)trackingBy RACHEL BECK

NEW YORK - Now that the government has decided it will spend $700 billion to get the economy started again, don't expect immediate results.

It's a little bit like those ads for protein drinks that show skinny milquetoasts turning into Schwarzeneggers in 60 days - you want it to be true, but you know in your heart it will take months or years of sweating in the gym to pack on that kind of muscle.

The latest readings on the U.S. economy show just how far we have to go. Home prices and auto sales are plummeting, manufacturing activity has tumbled and the consumer is feeling increasingly strapped.

The economy seems nearly dead, and things could get worse before they improve - even with Washington's help.

Much attention has been paid recently to the wrangling over the taxpayer-funded emergency rescue package. As it should. That's enough money to give every man, woman and child in the U.S. about $2,325 each.

Lawmakers say the bill is the best hope to save the financial system and revive the economy. It would allow the government to buy bad mortgages and other devalued assets held by troubled financial institutions, thereby inducing them to lend again to businesses and consumers instead of hoarding their cash.

The package, which was approved by the Senate late Wednesday and the House on Friday, would also include tax breaks for companies and the middle class.

History tells us not to expect miracles overnight. After the last big U.S. bailout - the formation of the Resolution Trust Corp. in 1989 to stop the U.S. savings and loan crisis - it took a year for the stock market to hit bottom, two years for the economy and three years for the housing market, according to Merrill Lynch.

And when Japan put a bailout plan in place in the late 1990s, its stock market took another five years to recuperate. By some measures, its economy still hasn't had a sustainable recovery, according to Merrill's chief North American economist, David Rosenberg.

Standard & Poor's global investment policy committee, in notes from its weekly meeting, said that even with a rescue plan "cascading concerns remain."

"Will it be enough to accomplish the required task of unfreezing credit markets? If so, are we just back to recession 101?" said the group of the firm's senior investment advisers.

Today's bailout doesn't even attack one of the biggest problems for our economy: The housing sector. Government officials from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on down have said the economy won't recover until housing does.


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