Oct. 3--Lower prices on consumer electronics may help carry the tech industry through a difficult holiday shopping season. But analysts believe corporate spending on computer servers, PCs and business software is entering a period of slower growth that will last well into next year.

Even with the financial industry bailout that Congress is considering this week, many economic forecasters believe the tech industry's magic shield -- the one that keeps sales surging despite a growing global downturn -- will soon wear thin.

With banks failing and the stock market in turmoil, holiday shoppers may be nervous about spending too much on laptops, mobile phones or video consoles, analysts say. And businesses and government agencies -- which spend three times more on technology in this country than individuals spend on consumer electronics -- had delayed some purchases even before the chaos on Wall Street.

In recent quarters, the tech industry has seemed immune to the larger economic downturn, as major companies like Apple, Hewlett-Packard and Oracle reported soaring profits and double-digit revenue growth. But industry analysts say the impact has only been delayed, not avoided.

"You may not see a decline in purchases, but you'll have slow growth or flat growth," said Andrew Bartels, an analyst at the Forrester market research firm who authored a report on the information technology market last week.

It's not necessarily because of turmoil in the

banking industry, Bartels said. Many big tech companies have big cash reserves and are unlikely to be directly affected by the credit crunch, he noted, although they could suffer if the crisis forces other industries to lay off workers or make drastic spending cuts.

There are signs that consumers are already feeling pinched. A mid-September survey by RBC Capital Markets and the ChangeWave research firm found that 40 percent of respondents planned to reduce their spending on consumer electronics through the end of the year, despite the upcoming holidays.

The survey was among the factors prompting RBC to downgrade Apple stock this week, while other Wall Street analysts said they also expect consumers to choose lower-priced items in coming months.

Manufacturers and retailers may be forced to aggressively cut prices, which could allow them to sell more products but reap less revenue than last year, said Shawn DuBravac, an economist with the Consumer Electronics Association.

For most of this year, "the tech industry has held up remarkably well," DuBravac said.