Oct. 6--Crisp, dry autumn leaves have yet to fall in Lawrence, but holiday shopping is already under way.

Shoppers nationwide have started to purchase gifts for family and friends. Some began months ago. And they have a good reason: It will be a bumpy shopping season.

The National Retail Federation, a retail trade association, reported last month that the 2008 holiday shopping season would present challenges for shoppers and stores.

Consumers are concerned about the economy, paying for food and gasoline, and looking for dollars to stretch while retailers need to reach sales goals. The association predicted holiday sales will increase by 2.2 percent, which is half of the 10-year average sales increase of 4.4 percent. Americans are expected to spend $470.4 billion this holiday season.

Many retailers are offering sales and creating strategies to keep shoppers in stores. Wal-Mart will sell 10 popular children's toys priced at $10 and start sales this month to give shoppers more time to buy. Target stores will offer a range of gifts for under $25 and highlight sales in prime sections in stores.

"We understand this is a difficult economic environment both for our guests and for the retail industry," said Joshua Thomas, a Target spokesman.

Thomas believes it will be a competitive holiday season as usual, but retailers will have to give people a reason to shop in their stores. Target is now focused on emphasizing the "Pay Less" portion of its "Expect More. Pay Less" motto featured in advertisements.

Consumer strategies

Robert Baker, an education coordinator with Housing and Credit Counseling Inc., believes people will continue shopping for gifts, but they must create their own strategies to avoid overspending.

"For consumers, you just need to be very discriminating, and in order to do that, you have to do what anybody would do when they're budgeting, which is start early and have a plan," he said.

Fewer retailers offer layaway plans, but many do offer a "buy now, pay later" plan or encourage shoppers to open credit accounts. Baker warns consumers to be aware of the consequences of using credit to purchase gifts.

"What we usually see in the holiday season is people will charge with the hope that they can pay it off in January or February," he said. "Maybe they're expecting a Christmas bonus, or overtime at Christmas, or perhaps a tax return.