According to the 16th semi-annual “Taking Stock With Teens” research survey, recently published by Piper Jaffray, a “bottom” may be forming in the two and one-half year “discretionary recession” as total teen spending on fashion increased by a modest 1 percent on a year-over-year basis. The national study, which is conducted by senior retail research analyst Jeff Klinefelter and a collaborative team of research analysts, aims to determine purchasing behavior and brand preferences among teens. This fall, the team surveyed 850 students using in-class, electronic and in-store surveys during classroom visits and mall research field trips in 10 cities across the United States. Piper Jaffray also captured an additional 6,800 online survey responses through the national DECA organization, which partnered with the retail research team for the eighth time.

The survey results indicate total spending trends were stronger for young women on a year-over-year basis, up 6 percent from fall 2007, but slightly weaker on a sequential basis with a 7 percent decline. Spending trends among young men were consistent on both a year-over-year and sequential basis at a 3 percent decline.

“Our national school survey indicates total spending on fashion is essentially flat with last fall,” said Klinefelter. “While it may be too early to call an inflection point, the results of the survey may point to an improvement in spending on this category within the next six to 12 months. Historically, fashion replenishment cycles have lasted three to five years, followed by transition cycles lasting another two to four years.”

Other key findings from the survey in the fashion, beauty and personal care, video game, digital media and restaurant categories include the following:

• West Coast Brands (e.g. Pacific Sunwear, Volcom, Quicksilver, Zumiez) took the No. 1 spot in clothing brand preferences among teens, followed by Hollister, Forever 21, American Eagle and Abercrombie & Fitch. Specifically among brands ranked by young women, Forever 21 took the “most preferred” position, while West Coast Brands continued to remain a favorite among young men.
• Spending in the beauty category is down sequentially by 13 percent, as indicated by both teen groups in the national school survey and national online survey.