Oct. 19--Just about two weeks from E-Day, the airwaves, the newspaper columns, the stumps are full of politics.

Candidates are everywhere, kissing babies, knocking on doors, eating chicken dinners. But overall, who's got the best shot at being elected?

Here's one view of the 29 most important campaigns in the Kansas City region, Missouri and Kansas, ranked by their relative strengths to date. The candidates who look on their way to blowout victories, based on polls and political buzz, appear at the top of the rankings. Those in close races appear in the middle. Those struggling are nearer the bottom. It's simply strongest to weakest.

Of course, things can change. So think of these as football power rankings, a guide to where they stand right now. And just as in football, the playoffs and bowl games (elections in this case) will determine who wins. Remember, both sides of most races are on the list.

So here goes:

1. Emanuel Cleaver, Democrat, 5th Congressional District, Missouri. No Hail Marys needed by the Rev.

2. Robin Carnahan, Democrat, Missouri secretary of strength. Did you know that "Carnahan" is Gaelic for "victorious"?

3. Pat Roberts, Republican, U.S. Senate, Kansas. Despite the flatness of Kansas, it's an easy downhill coast against Jim Slattery.

4. John McCain in Kansas. History is telling: State hasn't gone for a Demo presidential contender since 1964 and LBJ.

5. Jay Nixon, Democrat, Missouri governor. With a name like Nixon, what made Jay go into politics? Dems are glad he did. Way easier race than anyone imagined.

6. Sam Graves, Republican, 6th Congressional District, Missouri. Killer ad with 12-year-old daughter Emily puts this thing away against Kay Barnes.

7. Dennis Moore, Democrat, 3rd Congressional District, Kansas. With five terms under his belt, Moore is almost part of the family. Nick Jordan giving Democrats a case of the jitters, though.

8. Steve Howe, Republican, Johnson County district attorney. In the battle to replace big, bad Phill, give the edge to the GOPer in GOP-dominant JoCo.

9. Research Triangle vote (Johnson County). Even tough economy may not slow sales-tax initiative for biosciences. JoCo rarely says no. The support of a conservative, Sen. Karin Brownlee, helps.

10. Nancy Boyda, Democrat, 2nd Congressional District, Kansas. One of the most endangered Democrats in the country in what looks like a big Demo year. Savvy grass-roots campaign gives her a boost.

11. Barack Obama in Missouri. Could be an upset here. George W. Bush carried the bellwether in 2000 and 2004. But Obama's field network is vast, unprecedented and should surprise.

12. Peter Kinder, Republican, Missouri lieutenant governor. Kinder is nervous enough that a doc should prescribe Valium, quick. He should be edgy against Sam Page. Kinder's superior name ID is the difference.

13. Kansas City light rail. Chamber backing could put this over the top despite the down economy and the downward spiral of a gallon of gasoline.

14. Chris Koster, Democrat, Missouri attorney general. Can he overcome his ex-wife's support for his opponent? The party switch? The $1.1 million campaign check to rival Mike Gibbons? Great TV spots help.

15. Sam Page, Democrat, Missouri lieutenant governor. Coattails from Jay Nixon could pull Page through.

16. Lynn Jenkins, Republican, 2nd Congressional District, Kansas. Known for good closing arguments. Could win.

17. Mike Gibbons, Republican, Missouri attorney general. He's got the money but is fighting uphill on name ID. Banking on still-angry Democrats bailing on Koster. Could win.

18. Clint Zweifel, Democrat, Missouri treasurer. This will sound crass, but will Missouri elect a guy named "Zweifel" to statewide office? Democratic coattails might get him there.

19. Elect judges in Johnson County. Could be closer than expected. Electing judges will make sense to some, despite inherent danger in politicizing judiciary. A slender defeat.

20. Brad Lager, Republican, Missouri treasurer. Narrow-as-a-gnat race.

21. McCain in Missouri. It's his race to lose. He just might.

22. Nick Jordan, Republican, 3rd Congressional District, Kansas. Slapped Moore around in last debate. Coming on like a runaway Mack truck.

23. Rick Guinn, Democrat, Johnson County district attorney. Backing from 27 former assistant prosecutors impressive. But ... he's a Democrat.

24. Kay Barnes, Democrat, 6th Congressional District, Missouri. A lot of promise at the start. Miraculous fundraising. But "big-city mayor" simply doesn't cut in largely rural district.

25. Kenny Hulshof, Republican, Missouri governor. Note to self for future story: What happened to this campaign?

26. Obama in Kansas. May outperform John Kerry's 37 percent but still won't be enough.

27. Jim Slattery, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Kansas. Lack of money hurts. Slattery had potential, but Roberts KO'd him early.

28. Mitch Hubbard, Republican, Missouri secretary of state. Mitch who?

29. Jacob Turk, Republican, 5th Congressional District, Missouri. Can't beat a guy with a boulevard named after him.

To reach Steve Kraske, call 816-234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com.

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